With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31.6x Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
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Starbucks could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Starbucks
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Starbucks' to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 17%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 17% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 15% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Starbucks is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Starbucks' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Starbucks has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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