Shareholders might have noticed that KMD Brands Limited (NZSE:KMD) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to NZ$0.36 in the past week. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.0%to hit NZ$471m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, KMD Brands' six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be NZ$997.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 94% to NZ$0.005 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$990.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.0057 in 2025. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

Check out our latest analysis for KMD Brands

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 6.7% to NZ$0.49, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values KMD Brands at NZ$0.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$0.40. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that KMD Brands' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than KMD Brands.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting KMD Brands to become unprofitable next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that KMD Brands' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for KMD Brands going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether KMD Brands is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.