Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Brinker International (EAT) holds a Zacks Rank #1 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.44 a share 29 days away from its upcoming earnings release on April 29, 2025.

EAT has an Earnings ESP figure of 0.23%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.44 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.43.

EAT is one of just a large database of Retail-Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Groupon (GRPN).

Slated to report earnings on May 8, 2025, Groupon holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is -$0.12 a share 38 days from its next quarterly update.

Groupon's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 25.92% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.16.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, EAT and GRPN could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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