Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares declined more than 3% Friday as concerns mounted that the company's first-quarter global deliveries will fall short of expectations.

A report from RBC Capital Markets estimates Q1 deliveries at 346,000 vehicles, below the consensus forecast of 398,000. The shortfall is attributed to a temporary halt in Model Y production as Tesla prepares a refreshed version of the vehicle.

The timing of the refresh may have dampened demand, with prospective buyers reportedly waiting for the updated model. RBC also pointed to the likely release of a more affordable Tesla vehicle in Q2 as another factor contributing to reduced near-term sales.

According to RBC's regional breakdown, Q1 deliveries are expected to fall 5.4% in the U.S., decline nearly 48% in China, and drop close to 20% in Europe.

Despite the weaker outlook, RBC maintained its outperform rating and $320 price target on Tesla, citing the company's long-term potential in the electric vehicle market as well as its positions in energy, software, and artificial intelligence.

Tesla shares have declined about 36% over the past three months, reflecting both delivery concerns and shifting investor sentiment.