By Giulia Petroni

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of March 31-April 4 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: This week's macro focus is centered around U.S. President Trump's expected tariff rollout on Wednesday and Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with market participants keeping a close eye on the dollar's reaction. Risk-off sentiment is driven by weak U.S. consumer data last week, concerns over sweeping trade tariffs and disappointing GDP forecasts, according to analysts.

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its latest prospective planting report, revealing a projected 5% increase in U.S. corn acreage for 2025 to 95.3 million acres--the largest area planted in 12 years, according to Commerzbank Research. On the other hand, soybean acreage is expected to decline by 4% to 83.5 million acres, marking a five-year low. Wheat acreage is also set to decrease, with total wheat plantings forecast to fall 2% to 45.35 million acres, the second lowest since 1919. Notably, spring wheat acreage is expected to hit its lowest level in 55 years. Cotton plantings are also expected to shrink, by 12% to under 10 million acres.

Alongside planting data, the USDA reported U.S. quarterly stocks as of March 1, Commerzbank analysts say. Corn stocks stood at 8.15 billion bushels, down 2% from last year but in line with expectations. Soybean stocks were reported at 1.91 billion bushels, matching forecasts and up 4% year-over-year. Wheat stocks exceeded expectations, rising 14% from last year to 1.24 billion bushels.

Meanwhile, weather conditions for crop production in South America are generally favorable, according to Peak Trading Research. Brazil's safrinha corn production areas are expected to experience normal rains over the next two weeks, though there are concerns about potential dryness in Eastern Brazil in April and May. In Argentina, rain is expected early this week, followed by drier conditions.

In the U.S., subsoil moisture remains low in the Southwest, while wetter conditions in the Plains have pressured wheat prices. Heavy rains are also forecast for the Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt, marking the start of the U.S. weather market--when weather forecasts become crucial for the planting and growing seasons of key crops like corn, soybeans and wheat.

Chicago wheat futures are up 1% at $5.42 a bushel on Tuesday, while corn is up 1.3% on $4.63 a bushel. Soybean prices rise 1.3% to $10.28 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Agricultural softs have started the week strong. Cocoa prices trade higher as farmers enter the mid-crop harvest in West African countries, amid concerns that slowing cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast will tighten global markets. However, they are still well below the $10,500 mark hit at the beginning of the year.

Coffee and sugar prices are also climbing as Brazil's growing regions deal with a challenging harvest due to below-average rainfall and looming U.S. tariffs causing uncertainty. On Tuesday, cocoa was up 2.9% at $8,132 a metric ton, while coffee is up 2.1% at $3.88 a pound. Sugar rises 2.3% to $0.19 pound.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 01, 2025 11:39 ET (15:39 GMT)

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