Tariffs on US Imports to Rise to Highest Level in Almost a Hundred Years; Jarden Research Says

MT Newswires Live
04-04

Tariffs on US imports are set to rise to their highest levels since the 1930s, with the weighted average expected to reach 29.4%, according to a Thursday note by Jarden Research.

Jarden noted that the full impact of Thursday's 10% universal tariff starting April 5, will depend on how other regions respond.

Trade retaliation may not necessarily take the form of additional tariffs, Jarden added with China, already implementing measures to restrict local companies from investing in the US.

Weaker global growth and uncertainty are challenges for the Australia and New Zealand region, but support from Chinese policies and local government measures are expected to help balance the impact of the trade, Jarden noted.

Jarden anticipates increased price volatility in global commodity markets due to US tariffs, maintaining a long-term outlook of $75 per barrel for Brent crude and $11 per million British thermal units for spot liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Additionally, the tariffs may lower the consumption of imported goods in the US, which could further hurt oil demand amid declining global manufacturing activity, Jarden said.

Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), developing a Louisiana LNG project, may face tariff challenges. While the project is in a Foreign Trade Zone, exempting it from construction tariffs, it's unclear whether the company or contractor Bechtel will bear the eventual tariff costs. Shares of WDS fell 9% at market close.

Jarden expects the 25% US vehicle tariffs to increase non-US vehicle supply to markets like Australia, potentially compressing dealer margins, especially for Asian brands.

For Car Group (ASX:CAR) the tariffs could impact its Trader Interactive (TI) segment, particularly in recreational vehicles, and may harm US dealer health, leading to closures and affecting media advertising revenues. Shares of CAR fell 6% at market close.

For Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC), lower global trade volumes may reduce transaction-related revenues, but rising complexity and compliance requirements could provide structural benefits. Shares of WTC fell past 8% at market close.

The firm notes increased uncertainty in the healthcare sector due to the 10% tariff, with European drugs potentially targeted.

For Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX:FPH, NZE:FPH), Jarden estimates an additional NZ$100 million cost under a 25% Mexico tariff, which could lead FPH to reduce Mexico volumes and raise prices for US hospital and homecare customers. Shares fell 3% at market close.

Jarden sees uncertainty as a headwind for the Australian consumer sector, though domestic policy support and a strong labor market provide some offset.

For Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), the 10% tariff on goods from Australia and New Zealand to the US is unlikely to significantly impact its business, as 85% of its US sales come from locally produced luxury wines, and only 15% comes from Australian bulk wine. Shares of the company fell 4% at market close.

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