Arm's AI Chip Gambit Just Hit a Wall -- But the Real Battle Is Only Beginning

GuruFocus.com
04-02

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) just made a quiet but telling move in the AI chip warpursuing a potential acquisition of UK-based Alphawave (AWEVF) to lock in next-gen tech, then backing out. The tech in question, a high-speed data transfer solution called serializer-deserializer (SerDes), is the unsung hero behind how chips talk to each otheressential for training and running AI models at scale. Alphawave shares popped nearly 45% at 11.03am today on the news, their best day in over three years. While the deal fizzled out, the message was clear: Arm is thinking bigger than just licensing IP.

  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ARM.

Why does it matter? Because SerDes isn't just another piece of silicon. It's the plumbing for tomorrow's AI infrastructureand right now, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL), and even Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) are way ahead. Arm, backed by SoftBank and traditionally a behind-the-scenes IP powerhouse, doesn't currently offer SerDes at the bleeding edge. And building it from scratch? Insiders say it takes a specialized team and at least two years. Which explains why Arm has quietly started hiring chip designers and floating internal memos about launching its own processors. A December trial with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) even surfaced emails outlining that very strategyhinting that the company might compete directly with its own customers.

There's more at play. Alphawave has ties to a blacklisted Chinese firm, which may have thrown a wrench into the talks. But the strategic takeaway holds: Arm wants in on the $60 billion custom AI chip market projected by 2028. And SerDes is the toll gate. If they can't buy it, they'll have to build itand fast. Because as demand for high-performance AI chips surges, whoever controls the chip-to-chip highway will end up owning the map.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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