Wall Street Stunned: Lamb Weston Jumps 8% in Shocking Frozen Fry Comeback

GuruFocus
04-03

Lamb Weston (LW, Financial) just flipped the script. After a brutal 12-month slide that wiped out nearly half its value, the frozen potato giant shocked Wall Street with a blowout earnings beat and a sharp rally—up 8% at 10.33am, leading the entire S&P 500 (SPY, Financial). The company posted $1.10 in adjusted EPS on $1.52 billion in revenue, well ahead of consensus. CEO Mike Smith credited early fiscal 2025 cost-cutting efforts for the rebound, but warned that sluggish restaurant traffic—a key demand driver—is still a drag. Even so, the company raised the midpoint of its profit outlook, signaling a shift from survival mode to a more confident stance.

Dig a little deeper, and you'll see the shift is structural, not just cyclical. Lamb Weston is aggressively tightening its belt, with $250 million in capital spending cuts targeted for this year and another $200 million in the pipeline for 2026. That's $450 million freed up as the company wraps its growth investments and focuses on efficiency. It's also doubling down on its biggest customers—think McDonald's (MCD, Financial)—with targeted support and strategic bets to stay sticky in a softening market. Still, there's tension behind the scenes. The CEO switch from Tom Werner to Mike Smith hasn't silenced activist investor Jana Partners (Trades, Portfolio), who's pushing for a deeper board shake-up.

Meanwhile, McDonald's stock quietly moved 1%, riding a wave of investor interest in defensive plays with pricing power. It's a reminder that even in choppy macro waters, certain brands can still deliver. For Lamb Weston, the real test is ahead: was this quarter a lucky bounce—or the first signs of a leaner, more resilient business taking shape? Investors are watching closely.

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