Tesla Misses Q1 Delivery Numbers

Year-to-date, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock Tesla (TSLA) is down 26%. Meanwhile, shares have cratered more than 40% amid political backlash, slowing EV demand, tariff concerns, and cutthroat competition from Chinese EV makers like BYD, Xpeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). This morning, the world’s leading EV-maker reported one of its most anticipated quarterly delivery numbers in its history:

·       Total Q1 Deliveries: 336, 681 (Consensus Estimates: 378k); -13% YoY

·       Model 3/Y: 323,800 (Consensus Estimates: 351.9k); -12% YoY

·       Other Models + Cybertruck:12,881; -46% QoQ

·       Total Q1 Production: 362,615

Tesla: Is the Worst Priced in?

A humorous Wall Street adage warns “Sometimes when you try to call bottoms, all you end up with is stinky fingers.” For Tesla, the question on investor’s minds is “Can Tesla recover from a tumultuous start to the year, or is there more pain ahead?” Below are five reasons Tesla has likely bottomed, including:

1.       The General Market Conditions Deteriorated: Stocks are a product of their environment (the general market direction). Unfortunately, the first quarter of the post-election presidential cycle is one of the weakest times to be long stock. Sure enough, stocks experienced their first correction of 2025 and the first in several months. The hardest hit stocks were from the “Trump Trade,” which includes names like TSLA, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and Coinbase (COIN). Luckily, several data points suggest that a Market Bottom is in Sight After Q1 Struggles.

Image Source: BTIG, Bloomberg

2.       Sell the Rumor Buy the News: Wall Street is a discounting mechanism constantly looking toward the future. In all likelihood, savvy investors were likely pricing in the poor delivery numbers in advance. When the bad news finally hits the news wires, its too late to be negative. Recently, TSLA shares have shown subtle signs of a directional change. For instance, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) hit a fresh low on March 31^st. Meanwhile, TSLA shares last printed a low on March 11^th and have decoupled since.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

3.       Model Y Retool: An obvious reason Tesla deliveries were soft in Q1 is that the company had to retool its factories to produce the new version of its Model Y SUV (the best-selling car on Earth).

4.       Elon Stepping Down from DOGE: Tesla’s downside began accelerating as lead engineer and CEO Elon Musk shifted his focus to “The Department of Government Efficiency.” Today, the Trump Administration confirmed that Musk will step down from DOGE soon. Dan Ives, a top Tesla analyst, believes that Musk’s involvement in government is a $100 overhang for the stock.

5.       Energy Business is Rocking: Few analysts on Wall Street discuss Tesla’s often-overlooked energy business. In Q1, Tesla deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage, which is good for 156% year-over-year growth.

Image Source: @sawyermerritt

6.       Robotaxi is Here: Elon Musk confirmed that the long-awaited Tesla robotaxi will debut in Austin in June.

Bottom Line

Despite missing Q1 delivery expectations, several factors suggest that the worst may be priced into Tesla’s stock. CEO Elon Musk is stepping down from DOGE, temporary Model Y production disruptions will dissipate, and strong energy business growth will propel TSLA shares.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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