Updates throughout
April 4 (Reuters) - Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and RBC see more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve following President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.
Trump on Wednesday imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown.
J.P.Morgan raised its global and U.S. recession odds to 60% from 40% for this year, while Barclays and Deutsche Bank see recession risk for the U.S. if the tariffs remain in place.
Currently, traders on average expect rate cuts totaling 100 basis points for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after latest tariffs:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
Goldman Sachs | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in July, September and December) | 3.5-3.75%(through December) |
J.P.Morgan | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and September) | 3.75-4.00% (through September 2025) |
Citigroup | 125 bps | 5 (starting in May) | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and September) | 3.75-4.00% (through September) |
Berenberg | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Nomura | 25 bps | 1 (in December) | 3.50 - 3.75% (end of 2025) |
HSBC | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
ING | 50 bps | 2 (H2 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
RBC Capital Markets | - | 3 | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 75-100bps | - |
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Krishna Chandra Eluri)
((Kanchana.Chakravarty@thomsonreuters.com;))
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