The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2051 ET - Data-center operator NextDC and infrastructure investor Infratil have become a lot more compelling with the recent drop in their share price, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel says. He reckons that data-center demand is still strong despite near-term uncertainty that includes reports of Microsoft halting lease discussions on server farms. Samuel suggests that any earmarked capacity not taken up by Microsoft may be taken up by other hyperscale customers, most likely Oracle. He adds that feedback from Jefferies' recent U.S. data-center conference suggested that rents are still growing. Shares in NextDC and Infratil are down 33% and 23%, respectively, so far in 2025. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2038 ET - AGL Energy would benefit if Australia's federal government follows through on its election promise to subsidize household batteries, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the policy would favor AGL by creating demand in the middle of the day, reducing peak pricing. They also point out that, while batteries reduce grid-energy consumption, home storage encourages the uptake of electric vehicles and broader electrification. There are also earnings benefits from energy suppliers' expansion of the virtual power plants created by a network of home batteries, they add. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating and A$12.29 target price on the stock, which is up 1.0% at A$10.18. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2024 ET - Oil futures rise in the early Asian session on a likely technical rebound after falling for a third consecutive session overnight. Citi Research recommends investors and consumers refrain from buying and stay short risk-exposed commodities including oil until developments such as a 'Fed put' or a material 'Trump put' kick in. "Any rallies this week on minor trade deal headlines or delays to the imposition of the April 9 tariffs would provide opportunities to sell rallies," says Maximilian J. Layton, global head of Commodities Research, in a research report. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up 1.5% at $61.60/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 1.2% higher at $64.99/bbl. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1742 ET - A commitment by U.S. large, publicly traded oil companies to return capital to their shareholders will likely drive them to slow down production growth if crude prices remain at current levels for too long, according to Rystad. Oil prices dropped by about 15%, to $60.70 a barrel, since the Trump administration announced a suite of tariffs on other countries Wednesday. "Rystad estimates that the new 'all-in' breakeven cost for many U.S. oil players is now above $62," Matthew Bernstein, a vice president at the energy-focused consulting firm, says in a market note. At lower prices, "some combination of near-term activity levels, investor payouts or inventory preservation will need to be sacrificed," he adds. "Activity and production will be threatened the most." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)

1545 ET [Dow Jones]--The amount of lending to U.S. consumers declined in February, data from the Federal Reserve show. Consumer credit declined at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of minus 0.2% in February, falling to $4.997 trillion, the Fed said. The data don't include real-estate lending. An annualized increase of $1.5 billion in revolving credit (such as credit-card lending) was outweighed by an $11.3 billion annualized decline in nonrevolving credit, such as vehicle loans. (matt.grossman@wsj.com)

1528 ET - Crude futures fall for a third straight session as tariff news continues to rock markets. A spike into positive territory on a report that President Trump may consider a 90-day tariff delay was short-lived as the White House quickly denied it, and that was followed by Trump threatening additional 50% tariffs on China unless it withdraws its retaliation. Added to the overall bearishness around the tariff effect on demand is the larger OPEC+ output increase planned for May, and Saudi Arabia slashing its official selling prices for next month. "The spec loaded up on a pretty big net long position heading into Trump's Liberation Day, only to get ambushed by a rollout that was much more extreme than anticipated," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. WTI settles down 2.1% at $60.70 a barrel, a four-year-low, and Brent falls 2.1% to $64.21 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1455 ET - U.S. natural gas futures fall to their lowest level since mid-February as market fallout from U.S. tariffs overrides fundamental factors. The temperature outlook was little changed midday, with "decently strong" demand through Wednesday, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Weather data added some demand since late last week, although still light for most of April 10-22, the forecaster says. "But in the end, it appears tariff wars are taking center stage and that could lead to wild daily moves this week, especially as other countries ready retaliatory tariffs against the U.S." Nymex natural gas settles down 4.7% at $3.655/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1405 ET - An escalating trade war and OPEC+'s decision to increase production more than expected has created significant weakness in oil prices. As a result, "prior company messaging has become irrelevant, and we expect any guidance to be abandoned waiting for more clarity," TD Cowen says in a research note. Looking forward, the analysts expect longer-cycle, backlog-driven businesses such as Baker Hughes and TechnipFMC to be more insulated from the downturn than shorter-cycle businesses, including Schlumberger, Halliburton, Helmerich & Payne and Liberty Energy. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1213 ET -- Oil prices trade 2% lower after President Trump threatened additional levies on China and the White House shot down rumors of a 90-day tariff pause. Brent crude is down 2.1% to $64.22 a barrel, while WTI falls 2.1% to $60.68 a barrel. Growing fears that Trump's policies could trigger a global recession and a surprise output hike from OPEC+ raised concerns over demand, triggering a selloff and prompting major Wall Street Banks to slash their forecasts. "It's been a dire start to the second quarter for risk assets, and volatility shows little sign of easing as markets digest the potential economic fallout of new trade measures," says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. Now, Trump said he plans to add an additional 50% tariff on China starting Wednesday if Beijing doesn't withdraw its retaliatory tariff increase on the U.S., a move that would dramatically escalate trade tensions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1125 ET - The U.K. could cushion the blow from U.S. tariffs through fiscal support to businesses, Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja says. First, the government could move to allow the most exposed industries to remain competitive via deregulation and shifting policy costs further out the horizon, such as for electric-vehicle sales requirements. Second, the U.K. may provide direct grants and lending facilities in conjunction with the National Wealth Fund, the British Business Bank, and potentially the Bank of England, Raja writes in a note. The auto industry would take the largest financial hit from tariffs, following by machinery and mining, per Deutsche Bank estimates. In the meantime, the U.K. should be working toward a trade deal with the U.S. to remove all or most tariffs, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1058 ET - U.S. natural gas futures trade sideways after Friday's selloff while oil losses extend to a third session. Fundamental indicators include higher near-term heating loads and LNG feedgas flows above 16 Bcf a day, but "if natural gas gets caught up in the global asset selloff, it sets the stage for near-term downside for prices and a realignment with bearish seasonal fundamentals," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is off 0.1% at $3.833/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0908 ET - Analysts at Citi Research cut their near-term estimate for Brent crude, saying the effect of the U.S. tariffs on growth in East Asia is "particularly concerning." Citi lowers its 0-3 month Brent forecast to $60 a barrel, a level it sees quite possible to reach in the coming week. "Any rallies this week on minor trade deal headlines or delays to the imposition of the April 9 tariffs would provide opportunities to sell rallies in our view," they say. "We would push back on the notion that the commodity markets are pricing the full impact of these developments." Citi had estimated Brent at $68 a barrel in 2Q. Brent is off 2.4% at $63.98 a barrel as oil futures extend their slide to a third session. WTI is down 2.6% at $60.37 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 07, 2025 20:51 ET (00:51 GMT)

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