Qualcomm Incorporated QCOM shares have plunged 20.6% over the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 34.7%. However, it has outperformed peers like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE and Broadcom Inc. AVGO. Hewlett Packard has slumped 42.6% and Broadcom is down 36% over this period. 

Much of this malaise can be attributed to the continued U.S.-China trade spat and the resultant tariff war. The U.S. Commerce Department has long imposed various trade restrictions against China that banned the sale of high-tech equipment, chips, components and related technology to develop high-end smartphones and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled chips. With President Trump imposing fresh levies on China in his second term in office, Beijing has also put reciprocal tariffs in place as a ‘tit-for-tat’ measure, adversely impacting Qualcomm’s revenues.

The latest bone of contention is the 34% retaliatory tariff imposed by China after the U.S. President announced a 34% tax on imports from Beijing that is slated to come into effect from April 9. This has put the profitability of several U.S. companies at stake, including that of Qualcomm.

Three-Month QCOM Stock Price Performance

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How the Tariff War Affects QCOM

China accounts for the lion’s share of Qualcomm’s revenues, with revenues from sales in China, including Hong Kong, being 66% of total revenues in fiscal 2024. With one of the biggest footprints in the communist nation by a U.S.-based firm, the market uncertainties seem to be taking a toll on QCOM’s stock market performance. 

The chip-making firm has a significant presence in more than 12 cities in China, aiming to drive advancements in semiconductors and mobile telecommunications for the larger benefit. The company has been a key supplier of chips and other related components to local smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, Huawei and its spin-off brand Honor. Consequently, any disruption in local operations is bound to have a ripple effect across the company.

QCOM Margins Eroded by High R&D Costs

Over the years, Qualcomm's margins have declined due to high operating expenses and R&D (research & development) costs. The company expects softness in the handset market and a weaker overall mix of devices to continue in the near future. The shift in the share among original equipment manufacturers at the premium tier has reduced near-term opportunity to sell integrated chipsets from the Snapdragon platform. In addition, Qualcomm faces stiff competitive pressures from rivals Broadcom and Hewlett Packard. Aggressive competition from low-cost chip manufacturers and established players in the mobile phone chipset market is also likely to hurt Qualcomm's profits. Although the global smartphone market is expected to maintain its momentum over the next three to four years, a major portion of this growth is likely to come from the low-cost emerging markets, which may weigh on Qualcomm's margins. 

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Snapdragon, Automotive Businesses Lend Support to QCOM

Despite the short-term headwinds, Qualcomm is benefiting from investments toward building a licensing program in mobile. The company is well-positioned to meet its long-term revenue targets driven by solid 5G traction, greater visibility and a diversified revenue stream. In addition, the chip manufacturer envisions solid growth opportunities within the mobile space, driven by the strength of its Snapdragon portfolio.

Leveraging processors with multi-core CPUs with cutting-edge features, amazing graphics and worldwide network connectivity, Qualcomm Snapdragon mobile platforms are fast with superb power efficiency. Smartphones and mobile devices built with Snapdragon mobile platforms enable immersive augmented reality and virtual reality experiences, brilliant camera capabilities, superior 4G LTE and 5G connectivity with state-of-the-art security solutions.

Qualcomm is currently foraying deeper into the realm of AI capabilities within the laptop and desktop business with the launch of the Snapdragon X chip for mid-range AI desktops and laptops. The strategy is aimed at moving beyond the slowing smartphone industry, which is its primary breadwinner. In addition to diversifying its revenue stream, this is likely to further extend QCOM’s AI footprint.

The automotive telematics and connectivity platforms, digital cockpit and C-V2X solutions are fueling emerging automotive industry trends such as the growth of connected vehicles, the transformation of the in-car experience and vehicle electrification. Qualcomm believes it is on track to become the largest smartphone radio frequency front-end supplier by revenue in the near future. Automotive revenues surged 61% to a record high of $961 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by increased content in new vehicle launches with its Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform.

Estimate Revision Trend for QCOM

Earnings estimates for Qualcomm for fiscal 2025 have moved up 12.4% to $11.78 over the past year, while the same for fiscal 2026 has jumped 5% to $12.50. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish sentiments for the stock.
 

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End Note

With robust automotive and Snapdragon traction, Qualcomm appears to be relatively better placed in terms of its portfolio strength. A strong emphasis on quality, diligent execution of operational plans and continuous portfolio enhancements are driving more value for customers. With improving earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing a positive investor perception and investors looking for long-term gains could stay put.

However, stiff competition and softness in key end markets are likely to put pressure on the bottom-line growth. High R&D costs erode its profitability to a large extent. Qualcomm is facing a tough operating environment in China amid escalating tariffs, raising questions about its long-term viability plans in the communist country. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Qualcomm appears to be treading in the middle of the road, and investors could be better off if they trade with caution. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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