Bitcoin could remain in a bear market for at least six months, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, as on-chain data shows a lack of price movement despite rising capital inflows.

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a rough start in April, falling to a three-week low of $77,077. In an Apr. 5 post on X, Ju pointed out how the current Bitcoin bear market condition is reflected in on-chain metrics like market cap and realized cap.

Realized cap determines the actual amount of money entering Bitcoin based on wallet movements, while market cap is based on the most recent price on exchanges. A bear market is typically shown by stagnation or decline of market capitalization despite a rise in realized cap. This indicates that although capital is entering the market, prices are not reacting.

Ju notes that a bull market happens when modest capital drives up prices. However, the current bearish trend is supported by the fact that even large capital purchases aren’t driving up the price of Bitcoin. He adds that historical data shows that a true reversal in the price of Bitcoin typically takes at least six months, making a short-term rally unlikely.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin had its worst Q1 Start since 2018, dropping 11.8%. Losses in the first quarter have historically had a mixed effect on Bitcoin’s yearly performance. COVID fears caused a 9.4% drop in 2020, but Bitcoin ended the year up more than 300%. However, Q1 losses in 2014, 2018, and 2022 signaled the end of bull runs and preceded bear markets.

The recent decline comes after President Trump imposed new tariffs that have triggered market volatility worldwide. Although Bitcoin saw increases following Trump’s election, its status as a U.S. economic hedge is now in question due to these new tariffs, which have raised fears about a recession. Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of economic uncertainty will be tested in the months ahead.