U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Monday after two days of decline last week. Futures of major benchmark indices were over 3% lower in premarket trading.
The selloff that started on Thursday intensified on Friday as China introduced its retaliatory measures to U.S. tariffs. As of Friday, the S&P 500 was nearing the bear market zone as it closed 17.46% lower than its previous record high of 6,147.43 points.
Dow was 14.99% down from its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points, whereas the Nasdaq 100 was already in the bear market territory, 21.71% lower from its high of 22,222.61 points.
The hopes of a Fed ‘put’ remained on standby as Jerome Powell said Friday that "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.93% and the two-year bond was at 3.51%. However, the CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections rose, showing markets pricing a 48.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing the current interest rates in its May meeting.
Futures | Change (+/-) |
Dow Jones | -3.61% |
S&P 500 | -3.74% |
Nasdaq 100 | -4.26% |
Russell 2000 | -4.82% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, declined in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 4.01% to $485.03, while the QQQ declined 4.26% to $404.65, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session:
U.S. stocks closed Friday lower, with all sectors in the red. Financials, energy, and information technology led the S&P 500 sector declines.
Friday’s economic data showed strong March nonfarm payroll growth grew 228,000, exceeding expectations, though the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased as predicted by 0.3% monthly, and 3.8% year-over-year.
The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst weekly decline since March 2020. With the S&P 500 plunging 10.5% over Thursday and Friday, this marks only the fourth time such a sharp two-day drawdown has occurred in modern market history—joining October 1987, September 2008, March 2020, and now April 2025.
Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
Nasdaq Composite | -5.82% | 15,587.79 |
S&P 500 | -5.97% | 5,074.08 |
Dow Jones | -5.50% | 38,314.86 |
Russell 2000 | -4.37% | 1,827.03 |
Insights From Analysts:
The S&P 500 and Dow are showing a worrying pattern of steep, consecutive drops, reminiscent of the Great Depression, according to the experts.
Carson Research’s chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, noted on X that a 4% drop in the S&P 500 on Monday would be its third straight over 4% loss, a pattern seen only three times before, all during the Great Depression.
Should the S&P 500 close down 4% tomorrow, that would be three days in a row it was down at least 4%.That has only happened three times in history and all were during the Great Depression. pic.twitter.com/jEIsgoMl49
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) April 7, 2025
White Oak Consultancy’s Jason Goepfert pointed out that Dow futures suggest a third consecutive loss exceeding 3%, a pattern seen only four times during the Great Depression.
The Sentimentrader graph shared by hi, shows varied Dow performance in the weeks and months following these rare historical sell-off signals, highlighting market uncertainty even after such events.
Futures indicate another loss in the Dow Industrials greater than -3%.Futures are finicky, but that'd be its 3rd consecutive loss greater than -3%.Since 1896 – 129 years of history – this only occurred during the Great Depression. pic.twitter.com/egAOcqLBC0
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) April 7, 2025
Meanwhile, according to Craig Shapiro from 3-Circle Investments by The Bear Traps Report, the absence of this perceived "Trump put" or "Fed put" could trigger a swift and significant market downturn.
Shapiro argues the market sought assurance from Trump or the Fed, but recent events show both safety nets are further away than expected. He predicts Fed intervention only if the Treasury market becomes unstable.
Shapiro warned, "All this being said, the lack of the ‘put' for now means I think we are going to go significantly lower very quickly until UsT market dysfunction starts and the Fed says ‘no mas' because this will eventually bleed into economic activity and exacerbate the slowdown."
Despite growing skepticism, Stephanie Link, the chief investment strategist and the head of investment solutions at Hightower Advisors, said, “Buy.”
Sentiment is everything. I think I've blocked more angry folks than I've ever have done in the past few days. And I'm just trying to help. Thanks all. Buy.
— Stephanie Link (@Stephanie_Link) April 6, 2025
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 3.79% to hover around $59.57 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar declined 0.25% to hover around $3,029.67 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,168.04 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.35% at the 102.660 level.
Asian markets fell sharply on Monday. India's S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi index fell. European markets also crashed in early trade.
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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