Breakfast News: Global Storm

Motley Fool
04-07

Breakfast News: Global Storm

April 7, 2025

Friday's Markets

S&P 500
5,074 (-5.98%)
Nasdaq
15,588 (-5.82%)
Dow
38,315 (-5.5%)
Bitcoin
$83,544 (+1.88%)

1. Shockwaves Felt Around the World

Market slumps triggered circuit breakers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan this morning, pausing trading in attempts to stop panic selling. The Japanese Nikkei fell more than 8% on opening, triggering a bear market. European markets opened around 6% down.

  • "More than 50 countries have approached ... the administration about lowering their non-tariff trade barriers, lowering their tariffs, stopping currency manipulation": Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday stated President Trump had "created maximum leverage for himself," as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with President Trump at the White House for talks expected to include the 17% levy on Israeli imports. Reports say Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba will call the president later.
  • S&P 500 futures fell close to 4% in pre-market trading: The index is likely to join the Nasdaq in bear market territory soon. Nobody enjoys watching the value of their portfolios go down, but bear markets can be opportunities to put money to work for the long run while stocks are trading at a discount. Focus on long-term, quality stocks without timing the bottom.

2. Bitcoin and Oil Slump

Bitcoin (BTC -6.82%) fell below $75,000 early this morning for the first time since November, wiping out all of the 'Trump rally' since the president's election victory. The level represents a 31% fall from January's all-time high.

  • "Expect sharper corrections once U.S. equities open today": Market maker Caladan's COO Julia Zhou says cryptocurrency is "typically a leading indicator for risk assets."
  • Oil falls on supply hike: Crude oil dipped below $60 for the first time since 2021, as global recession fears grow and OPEC+ moving to raise output beyond previous plans.

3. Key Earnings to Watch This Week

Rule Breakers recommendation Dave & Buster's (PLAY -1.35%) will post fourth-quarter earnings after today's closing bell. The company has been struggling after missing Q3 earnings estimates as customers spend less due to economic fears. Analysts expect 65 cents earnings per share this time.

  • Dividends raised for 51 consecutive years: Dividend Investor rec RPM International (RPM -3.95%) reports Q3 results Tuesday, after posting earnings beats for the previous four quarters. At the end of fiscal 2024, the company raised its quarterly dividend 10.9% to 51 cents per share.
  • Bank earnings to be hit by recession, spending slowdown, in 2025?: Friday brings Q1 updates from big banks, including JPMorgan (JPM -7.56%), Wells Fargo (WFC -7.26%), and Morgan Stanley (MS -7.55%). All three posted earnings beats in all four quarters of fiscal 2024.

4. Next Up: Inflation Data

We'll have the March consumer price index (CPI) print Thursday, expected to show a year-over-year rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8%. Core CPI is predicted to drop from 3.1% to 3%. A producer price index (PPI) update showing wholesale inflation follows Friday. February showed a 3.2% year-over-year rise with Core PPI up 3.3%.

  • Traders are now factoring in four or even five cuts this year in an attempt to stabilize the economy: The CME Fedwatch tool has swung to a 57% probability of an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting on May 7.
  • "There's a lot of waiting and seeing going on, including by us, and that just seems like the right thing to do at a time of elevated uncertainty": Fed chair Jerome Powell is in no rush, with so much up in the air right now.

5. Foolish Fun

What investment principle took you the longest to learn, but has been most valuable? Discuss with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying.

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