• Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: BAER) provides full suite of firefighting services from surveillance to containment to analytics
• Structural factors have expanded the fire season and affected geographies over decades
• Government agencies often need supplemental private help to contain massive fires, as in recent California outbreak that cost hundreds of billions in damage
• Many firefighting teams still employ antiquated tracking methods like printed maps and analog communications
• Bridger uses sensor networks collecting real-time data on temperature, humidity and wind speed
• Satellite connectivity allows Bridger to stay connected even in remote regions
• Operating leverage continues to help Bridger, with 42% adjusted Ebitda margin in 2025 vs 38% in 2024
• Ebitda expected to rise 21% to $45 million at forecast midpoint in 2025
• Trades at an enterprise value, adjusted for debt and preferred stock, of just 13 times 2025 Ebitda despite impressive growth and profit profile

By John Jannarone and Jarrett Banks

The tragic Palisades Fire earlier this year was emblematic of a growing concern around the world: Fire seasons are getting longer, more people live in at-risk areas, and economic damage can run into the hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s also an industry ripe for disruption.

One company leading the charge is Montana-based Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: BAER), which offers a full suite of fire surveillance and suppression services, complete with a plane fleet, satellite connectivity and state-of-the-art analytics. Bridger has been busier than ever, with its earliest-ever dispatch of “Super Scooper” planes in Texas in 2024 and of course the California blaze in January, which set yet another record for an early start to the year.

Bridger’s fleet of six Scoopers is one of the world’s largest and has become a centerpiece of aerial firefighting. The planes, which are custom-purposed specifically for firefighting, make dives into lakes or other bodies of water and can dump 100,000 gallons a day in containment efforts. What’s more, there is ample water near most fires to accommodate the Scoopers: 90% of fires are within 20 miles of Scooper-accessible bodies of water.

The Scoopers also have a track record of safety along with impressive economics. Each plane generates enough adjusted Ebitda to recoup its cost in about 4.5 years. After making a recent deal with Spain, Bridger has the option to purchase four more Scoopers, which would expand the fleet to 10 planes if the company decides to proceed.

Those workhorses have become more critical than ever as fire concerns worsen. The number of fires larger than 1,000 acres in the western U.S. tripled between the 1970s and 2010s for a host of structural reasons. It’s not just climate change: So-called Wild Urban Interface (WUI) areas, where homes are at risk, have expanded dramatically over recent decades and now include 1/3 of U.S. homes.

Both federal and state government entities provide a diverse – and expanding – set of revenue streams. And they keep coming back, with a 100% renewal rate on Bridger’s core federal and state contracts.

There is also need for other services to take control of fires – hopefully before they get out of hand. Bridger’s Air Attack aircraft serve as the command center over a wildfire, overseeing both in-air and on-ground assets. On board, the Air Tactical Group Supervisor maintains essential communication with the Incident Commander and coordinates aerial firefighting resources.

Finally, the Multi-Mission Aircraft (MMA) group is equipped with two Pilatus PC-12s and one Shrike Commander 500S. These aircraft are capable of cutting-edge imaging systems and data transmission, with satellite connectivity and robust analytics capabilities. The planes feature sensors with infrared capabilities for heat mapping, firefighter overwatch and more.

Importantly, the MMA and Air Attack planes can help generate more revenue year-round as customers face high fire danger across the seasons. Bridger was awarded a multi-year Special Sensor Surveillance Contract for up to $68 million with the Department of the Interior and a 10-year Air Attack contract with the Forest Service for up to $166 million.

Believe it or not, some firefighting teams still use decades-old technologies such as analog walkie-talkies, PDF printouts and large physical maps. Bridger’s is taking firefighting into the 21^st Century: It integrates intelligent sensor networks into its wildfire suppression platforms, collecting real-time data on temperature, humidity, wind speed, and other environmental factors, enabling firefighters to make informed decisions.

While Bridger is focused on expanding its footprint in the U.S. and Canada, there is also plenty of opportunity to help fight fires further afield. Many countries such as France have only begun to work with private operators and Bridger has already pursued a partnership focused on a next-generation aircraft. The company has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with France’s Positive Aviation to be the exclusive North American launch partner for the FF72—a water-scooping firefighting plane based on the ATR 72-600. The deal signals Bridger’s intent to expand its fleet with newer, more efficient technology.

As with the Spanish planes, Bridger has an option rather than an obligation to buy more aircraft, allowing it to avoid unnecessary strains on its balance sheet but have access to planes once it is confident in demand. The French partnership, announced at an aerial firefighting conference in Bordeaux, grants Bridger the ability to purchase up to 20 FF72s and establishes it as the primary sales, service, and training hub for the aircraft in North America. The first deliveries are expected in 2029, a long runway in an industry facing increasing pressure to combat intensifying wildfires.

The deal also comes as Bridger has appointed new leadership. CEO Sam Davis, who took the helm permanently in March after serving as interim chief, has been tasked with steering the company’s expansion while maintaining profitability. Prior to Bridger, Mr. Davis spent four years at Oracle, Inc. and before that at Meltwater and Natus Medical, Inc.

Bridger’s founder and former CEO, Sen. Timothy Sheehy, ran the company for 10 years before winning a Senate race last year. Investors should note that Bridger itself was ensnared by series of aggressive political attacks on Sen. Sheehy – possibly causing unjustified damage to the share price – but those headaches have faded away since he left the company for the Senate.

In fact, Sen. Sheehy is proving that firefighting technologies are a non-partisan issue and widely supported on both sides of the aisle. In January, Sen. Sheehy, a Republican and Sen. Martin Heinrich, a Democrat from New Mexico, introduced the Aerial Firefighting Enhancement Act of 2025 to strengthen the aerial wildfire suppression fleet and better combat year-round threats.

Turning to financials, Bridger has recently begun to see a breakout performance, with margins expected to increase further due to high-capacity utilization, fleet expansion and the benefit of prior cost incurrence. The company sees 2025 Ebitda margins at 42%, up from 38% last year and an average of just 21% between 2021 and 2023.

At the midpoint of the company’s forecast, Ebitda will rise 21% to $45 million this year. That reflects a multiple of just 13 times the company’s enterprise value, adjusted for debt and preferred shares. Bridger’s growth and expanding margin profile suggest plenty of room for a re-rating higher.

With a disruptive technology that governments covet, structural shifts driving more firefighting in more locations throughout the year and an unrivaled suite of services, Bridger is poised to smoke the competition. Investors should take a closer look before more of the world takes notice.

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