By Angela Palumbo

Ticketmaster owner Live Nation Entertainment could be "relatively recession resilient," if people continue to prioritize going to events in a challenging economic environment, BofA Securities says.

Analyst Peter Henderson wrote in a research note Friday that the live music industry has held up relatively well during economic downturns. One reason for this is the "scarcity value with specific dates and limited shows in a particular area," which drives incentive for fans to buy tickets whenever they can. For example, pop star Lady Gaga is going on tour this summer for the first time in seven years.

Live music can withstand recessions because concert attendance doesn't require significant travel plans or expenses, and tickets are relatively inexpensive compared with other forms of entertainment, he adds.

Henderson rates Live Nation stock as a Buy with a $175 price target, which implies a 39% increase from the stock's previous closing price of $126.06.

"We view LYV as an attractive opportunity to own a growth-oriented, and relatively recession resilient live entertainment company benefiting from favorable supply and strong current demand trends, global growth and an attractive venue expansion strategy," he wrote.

Henderson isn't alone. Last month, Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk highlighted that spending on live music rose an average 7.3% during recessionary periods, compared with 3.2% growth for overall consumer spending.

While he doesn't subscribe to the notion that live music spending is immune to economic weakness, "our analysis suggests that the live music industry has proven to be less cyclical than...other forms of entertainment spending," he wrote March 17.

But of course, there are risks. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements on Wednesday shocked the stock market. There's now broad concern that prices could continue to increase, forcing consumers to cut back on spending and potentially lead to a recession.

"Concert attendance is a luxury that consumers could pull back from if needed," Morningstar research analyst Matthew Dolgin wrote in a note on Thursday. While tariffs won't have much direct impact on entertainment companies' costs, "most do rely directly on consumer spending, so economic weakness that results from the tariffs could impede business," he added.

At a March conference, Live Nation CFO Joe Berchtold said he knows "the world has various issues. Again, we don't have tariff issues. There's no cost with that. We're not seeing any demand issues."

On top of the consumer spending risks, Live Nation still faces legal headwinds. Last year, the Justice Department sued the company for alleged monopolization that hurts competition in markets across the live entertainment industry. The company has previously said that Ticketmaster actually lost market share since the 2010 merger. A trial is expected for March 2026.

Shares of Live Nation were down 4.4% Friday to $120.51 while the S&P 500 dropped 4.5%.

Write to Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com

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April 04, 2025 14:46 ET (18:46 GMT)

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