The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1532 ET - Oil futures fall to a nearly four-year low in a second day of heavy selling after China retaliated against U.S. tariffs with duties of its own, adding to concerns about loss of demand. "This pullback reflects market uncertainty and could weigh on global crude prices in the near term, particularly if trade tensions hinder economic growth in key oil-consuming regions," Joseph Dahrieh of Tickmill says in a note. "Volatility is likely to increase as markets digest the full implications of the tariffs." WTI falls 7.4% to $61.99 a barrel, its lowest settle since late April 2021. Brent falls 6.5% to $65.58 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1515 ET - Costco's gold sales could help keep it insulated from tariff-related losses, CFRA Research analyst Arun Sundaram says. The wholesaler has previously said its gold bars are a top sales-driver, and that could continue as gold prices continue to soar and more people are looking to invest outside the stock market. Costco's membership-based model will also help it remain resilient through tariffs because membership fees account for about half of operating income. Its recent fee increase will likely be reinvested into lower prices, potentially setting it apart from competitors, Sundaram says. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1511 ET - Hitherto resilient U.S. natural gas futures fall as the global market selloff extends to a second day and weather-driven demand eases going into the mild shoulder season. Natural gas benefited from buyers looking to diversify in an uncertain macro environment, but "the market is now pricing in the possibility that U.S. LNG exports may be affected by retaliatory measures of countries that have been hit with President Trump's latest round of tariffs," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Declines across the curve into next winter could provide value for participants looking to hedge upside price exposure, the firm adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 7.3% at $3.837/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1400 ET - U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil should compensate OPEC+'s decision to speed up the unwinding of output cuts in May, Societe Generale's head of commodities research Benjamin Hoff says in a note. "The more muscular implementation of U.S. sanction policy vis-à-vis Iran and also Venezuela is removing precisely the heavier, sourer grades from the market, that the world is currently short," he says. "This creates space for OPEC barrels to return." The OPEC+ decision added fuel to this week's tariff-induced selloff in oil. Hoff expects OPEC+ to manage further increases tactically. "Depending on price impact it is entirely possible that we will see a delay of the return of further barrels in June." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1331 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by 5 this week to 489, and was down by 19 from a year ago, oil services firm Baker Hughes reports. Rigs directed at natural gas fell by 7 to 96, or 14 fewer than a year ago. Higher oil prices over time tend to lead to greater drilling, and while the U.S. has maintained record oil and gas production with lower rig counts, the current price drop is likely to limit growth. Crude futures sank to four-year lows in a rout prompted by U.S. global trade tariffs and China's retaliation. U.S. benchmark WTI is off 7.8% at $61.72 a barrel after hitting $60.45 earlier in the session. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1248 ET - S&P 500 sectors are tanking across the board, but one them is escaping the worst of the decline: consumer staples. That sector is down about 3% today and was the only one in the green on Thursday. The sector's losses today, led by Estée Lauder and Archer-Daniels Midland, are being partially offset by gains from Dollar Tree, as investors bet a downturn in consumer sentiment and stretched budgets will lead to higher demand for the discount retailers. Conagra Brands and Target are also higher. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1227 ET - While new tariff battles monopolize most of the focus for agriculture futures,weather in the eastern part of the Corn Belt is shaping up to be less than friendly for U.S. growers. The increasing possibility of early planting being disrupted by rainfall has some in the market on edge. "Planting delays will be widespread, and in some areas where isolated flooding has occurred, there will be a need to replant," says Mark Soderberg of ADM Investor Services in a video blog posted on the firm's YouTube channel. Planting for corn typically begins in April, while soybeans and other crops tend to start in May. Most-active corn is up 0.6%, soybeans fall 2.7%, and wheat is down 1.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1224 ET - CBOT grain futures are decreasing their losses in afternoon trading, after falling early on China's 34% tariffs on U.S. exports. Corn futures are now up0.4%, while soybeans remain down 2.7% and wheat falls 1.2%. President Trump said in a post on Truth Social that leaders from Vietnam have reached out in an effort to negotiate new trade terms, which in turn would reduce tariff rates on the country's U.S. exports to 0%. The indication of some nations being willing to negotiate has given traders some optimism that the full extent of tariffs unveiled this week won't come into play. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1206 ET - CBOT grain futures are as a whole paring losses, pausing a dumping of futures to evaluate how much China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports will really hurt -- or for how long that tariff will be in place. "They cannot sustain a war," says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group. "Meaning [that] they need our market more than we need theirs." While soybeans are still down by over 3%, corn has turned positive for the day -- trading up 0.2%. Driving this is the notion that, for corn, the withdrawal of the Chinese market isn't as damaging. According to USDA data, China purchased over 22 million MT of U.S. soybeans in the last marketing year, compared to sales of just under 3 million MT for corn. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1203 ET - Canadian commodities producers were among the hardest hit on the Toronto indexes amid a US-China trade war-led selloff. In 2023, Canada's minerals and metals sector exports totalled C$150.7 billion and accounted for 21% of all Canadian merchandise exports, with metals making up 77% of the exports in the category, according to Statistics Canada. In the session, Capstone Copper, First Quantum Minerals, Aya Gold & Silver, and Canadian mining giant Teck Resources, down 13%, 12%, 10%, and 9.8%, respectively. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1138 ET - News that China will levy 34% tariffs on U.S. imports is sending shockwaves through markets as a whole -- including CME livestock futures, with live cattle down 2.5% and hogs down 3.7%. The cutting off of export demand from China looks to affect both U.S. pork and beef, but it's the latter that may see more stress on its futures prices, says Rich Nelson of Allendale Inc. "This is a valid hit for us," he says, pointing out that China was the buyer of 16% of U.S. beef exports in the last marketing year -- up from just 4% in 2019-20. China constituted 7% of U.S. pork exports, with Mexico being a far more dominant customer for wholesale pork. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1136 ET - Soft commodity prices slump as part of a wider market selloff, with cotton prices down 4.5% at $0.62 a pound and cocoa dropping 8.2% to $8,531 a metric ton. Cocoa still sits up 6.1% on week, while cotton is nearly 8% lower. U.S. tariffs--and expectations of retaliatory levies--have driven down prices across the soft commodities complex. The U.S. is the second-largest cotton exporter in the current crop year, and China, Bangladesh and Vietnam are among the most prominent importers, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. China at least is likely to severely restrict purchases of U.S. cotton and instead increasingly cover import requirements from Brazil, Commerzbank says. That said, further cotton downside is likely to be limited, given expectations for reduced acreage, analysts add. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 04, 2025 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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