Three major U.S. indexes the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed deeply in red by 9.89%, 9.58% and 8.78% respectively, last week. The stocks have taken a beating after the implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies with major trading partners on April 2, 2025. Uncertainty over the impact of such policies on the U.S. economy has stoked fear of a near-term recession among market participants.

Analysts are expecting a slowdown in economic growth and a spike in short-term inflation due to the aggressive shift in U.S. foreign policies. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE),  inflation (excluding volatile items like food and energy) the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge marked the biggest monthly gain of 0.4% in February since January 2024. Over all the PCE index, rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in February, unchanged from January data. 

According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report, manufacturing and services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) for March contracted to 49% and 50.8% compared with 50.3% and 53.5% in February. Any reading below 50% indicates a contraction in manufacturing activities. The labor markets have shown signs of cooling down due to strict immigration policies, widespread layoffs of federal workers, and reluctance by businesses to increase hiring amid the escalating global trade war. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for February marked the lowest level since September 2024. Job openings fell 194,000 to 7.568 million in February. The employment index declined to 46.2% in March from 53.9% in February.

Regardless of market conditions, we, here at Zacks, provide investors with unbiased guidance on how to beat the market. 

As usual, Zacks Research guided investors over the past three months with its time-tested methodologies. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, you may want to look at our feats to prepare better for your next action.

Here are some of our key achievements:

PhenixFIN and United Fire Following Zacks Rank Upgrade

Shares of PhenixFIN Corporation PFX have gained 6.2% (versus the S&P 500’s 16.5% decrease) since it was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on February 12.

Another stock, United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS, which was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 on February 13, has returned 5.2% (versus the S&P 500’s 16.3% decrease) since then.

A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) stocks returned -3.48% in January 2025 (through February 3^rd) vs. -0.60% for the S&P 500 index and -2.75% for the equal-weight version of the index

This portfolio returned +22.3% in 2024, vs. +28% for the S&P 500 index and +19.9% for the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 index.

This hypothetical portfolio returned +20.63% in 2023 vs. +24.83% for the S&P 500 index and +15% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index.

The portfolio of Zacks Rank #1 stocks is an equal-weight portfolio, while the S&P 500 index is a market-cap-weighted index that has been notably distorted by the concentrated performance of mega-cap stocks since late 2022.

The Zacks Model Portfolio - consisting of Zacks Rank #1 stocks – has outperformed the S&P index by almost 13 percentage points since 1988 (through the end of January 2025, the Zacks # 1 Rank stocks generated an annualized average return of +23.9% since 1988 vs. +11.3% for the S&P 500 index).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here >>>

Check PhenixFIN’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>

Check United Fire’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>

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Zacks Recommendation Upgrades EZCORP and Palomar

Shares of EZCORP, Inc. EZPW and Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR have advanced 13.4% (versus the S&P 500’s 15.9% decrease) and 5% (versus the S&P 500’s 17.2% fall) since their Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform on February 10 and February 18, respectively.

While the Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon, the Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months. However, just like the Zacks Rank, the foundation for the Zacks Recommendation is trends in earnings estimate revisions.

The Zacks Recommendation classifies stocks into three groups — Outperform, Neutral and Underperform. While these recommendations are determined quantitatively, our analysts have the flexibility to override them for the 1100+ stocks they closely follow based on their better judgment of factors such as valuation, industry conditions and management effectiveness than the quantitative model.

To access our research reports with Zacks Recommendations for the 1100+ stocks we cover, click here>>>

Zacks Focus List Stocks HCA Healthcare, Palantir Technologies Shoot Up

Shares of HCA Healthcare, Inc.  HCA, which belongs to the Zacks Focus List, have gained 7.6% over the past 12 weeks. The stock was added to the Focus List on January 7, 2019. Another Focus-List holding, Palantir Technologies Inc.  PLTR, which was added to the portfolio on March 26, 2024, has returned 5.7% over the past 12 weeks. The S&P 500 has decreased 14.2% over this period.

The Focus List portfolio returned +0.87% this year through the end of February 2025 vs. +1.44% for the S&P 500 index and +2.87% for the equal-weight version of the index.

The 50-stock Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +18.41% in 2024 vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. The portfolio had returned +29.54% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +13.61% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. In 2022, the portfolio returned  -15.2% vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

Since 2004, the Focus List portfolio has produced an annualized return of +11.63% (through the end of February 2025). This compares to a +10.37% annualized return for the S&P 500 index and +10.09% for the equal-weight version of the index in the same time period.

Unlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Focus List, Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. Gain full access now >>

Zacks ECAP Stocks AutoZone & Monster Beverage Make Significant Gains

AutoZone, Inc. AZO, a component of our Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), has jumped 12.1% over the past 12 weeks. Monster Beverage Corporation MNST has followed AutoZone with 10.7% returns.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), which consists of 30 concentrated, ultra-defensive, long-term Buy-and-Hold stocks, returned -6.29% in December 2024 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -2.41% return (SPY ETF).

For the year 2024, the portfolio returned +16.26% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index (SPY ETF).

In 2023, the portfolio returned +12.17% vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned -4.7% in 2022 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

With little to no turnover and annual rebalance periodicity, ECAP seeks to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies whose earnings streams exhibit a proven 20+ year track record of surviving recessionary periods with minimal impact on aggregate earnings growth relative to the overall S&P 500.

The ECAP and many other model portfolios are available as part of Zacks Advisor Tools, a cloud-based solution to access Zacks award-winning stock, mutual fund and ETF research. Click here to schedule a demo.

Zacks ECDP Stocks Coca-Cola and J. M. Smucker Outperform Peers

The Coca-Cola Company KO, which is part of our Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP), has returned 14.9% over the past 12 weeks. Another ECDP stock, The J. M. Smucker Company SJM, has increased 7.2% over the same time frame. Of course, the inclination of investors toward quality dividend stocks to secure an income stream amid heightened market volatility contributed to this performance.

Check Coca-Cola’s dividend history here>>>          

Check J. M. Smucker's dividend history here>>>

With an extremely low beta and a history of minimum earnings variability over the last 20+ years, this 25-stock portfolio helps to significantly mitigate risk.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned -7.44% in December 2024 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -2.41% pullback and the Dividend Aristocrats ETF’s (NOBL) -6.72% decline.

For full-year 2024, the portfolio returned +6.95% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index and +6.72% for NOBL.

The portfolio returned -0.9% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +8.11% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -2.3% in 2022 vs. -17.96% for the S&P 500 index and -8.34% for NOBL.

Click here to access this portfolio on Zacks Advisor Tools.  

Zacks Top 10 Stock Primo Brands Delivers Solid Returns

Primo Brands Corporation PRMB, from the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025, has jumped 8.5% year to date, compared with the S&P 500 index’s 13.8% decrease.

The Top 10 portfolio returned -2.37% this year (through February 2025) vs. +1.44% for the S&P 500 index and +2.87% for the equal-weight version of the index.

The Top 10 portfolio returned +62.98% in 2024, vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio had returned +25.15% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index.

Since 2012, the Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1948.35% through the end of February 2025 vs. +469.98% for the S&P 500 index and +364.63% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio has produced an average return of +25.29% in the period 2012 through the end of February 2025, vs. +12.47% for the S&P 500 index and +10.32% for the equal-weight version of the index.

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CocaCola Company (The) (KO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW) : Free Stock Analysis Report

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) : Free Stock Analysis Report

United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL): ETF Research Reports

Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

PhenixFIN Corporation (PFX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Primo Brands Corporation (PRMB) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research