Armstrong World Industries (AWI), Mohawk Industries (MHK) and Owens Corning (OC) are well-positioned despite headwinds from the Trump administration's new reciprocal tariffs on certain countries, BofA Securities said in a note Tuesday.
The analysts said they estimate that building product companies will see an average earnings per share impact of around 20%, with significant variation depending on sourcing, country exposure and gross margin.
To offset the tariff impact, companies may need to raise prices by 1.5% on average, with Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) requiring a 6% price increase. While some manufacturers have already announced price hikes, there is a risk that volumes could weaken in a challenging macro environment, according to the note.
The analysts said three "buy"-rated stocks -- Armstrong World, Mohawk and Owens Corning -- are relatively well-positioned if the tariffs remain in place.
Armstrong's tariff impact on EPS is minimal due to its US manufacturing base and "significant" pricing power. Mohawk, despite a 13% drop in shares, will only need a 1% to 2% price increase to maintain margins, whereas competitors may need to raise prices by 20% or more.
Meanwhile, Owens Corning's roofing business, which accounts for 60% of its earnings and is domestically produced, could benefit from lower asphalt prices, the analysts said, adding that with a strong free cash flow yield of about 11%, the company is well-positioned to navigate this current environment.
"Building product companies could face significant headwinds from tariffs, but there is still a lot of uncertainty," the analysts said, adding that while pricing is a key offset, the macro backdrop remains "challenging."
Price: 131.24, Change: +2.89, Percent Change: +2.25
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