US gas production on track to hit record high in April
US LNG export feedgas on track to ease in April from March record
US gas inventories on track for rare build in March
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% to a seven-week low on Monday on record output and worries U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for energy.
"Although gas is usually a weather-driven market, it is also an industrial commodity subject to the vagaries of the U.S. economic growth path and as a result, the tariff factor may require downward adjustments in expected U.S. gas demand this year," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said.
Gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18.2 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $3.655 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since February 13.
Prices declined despite forecasts for cooler weather and more gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for June over May NGK25-M25 fell to around 9 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since February 2023.
Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.
Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states edged up to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, slightly up from a monthly record 106.2 bcfd in March.
Looking forward, analysts noted the drop in U.S. crude CLc1 futures due in part to worries Trump's trade tariffs could result in less oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, which could cut gas output associated with that oil production. O/R
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 22.
With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 109.4 bcfd this week to 98.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. eased to 15.7 bcfd so far in April, down from a monthly record 15.8 bcfd in March.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around a six-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and held near a three-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 4 Forecast | Week ended Mar 28 Actual | Year ago Apr 4 | Five-year average Apr 4 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +29 | +16 | +17 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,820 | 1,773 | 2,280 | 1,870 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -2.7% | -4.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.82 | 3.84 | 1.79 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.47 | 11.70 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.92 | 13.08 | 10.06 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 173 | 171 | 126 | 165 | 172 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 33 | 39 | 35 | 33 | 27 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 206 | 210 | 161 | 198 | 199 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.7 | 106.1 | 101.9 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.0 | 114.7 | 113.7 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 12.1 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 26.8 | 27.4 | 24.9 | 28.8 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.2 | 24.1 | 23.2 | 23.6 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 78.2 | 84.5 | 74.1 | 83.8 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 104.3 | 109.4 | 98.7 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 91 | 92 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 91 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 11 | Week ended Apr 4 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 18 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 4.04 | 4.21 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.37 | 3.26 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.63 | 2.94 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.15 | 3.22 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.67 | 3.70 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.56 | 3.40 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.30 | 3.73 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.92 | 2.51 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.70 | 1.86 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 37.69 | 37.69 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 57.30 | 46.48 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 14.97 | 31.16 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 25.63 | 19.92 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 10.00 | 3.88 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Richard Chang)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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