Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.

2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.24 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 6, 2025.

Marathon Petroleum's Earnings ESP sits at 40.96%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.24 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.40.

MPC is one of just a large database of Oils-Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Devon Energy (DVN).

Devon Energy, which is readying to report earnings on May 6, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.25 a share, and DVN is 28 days out from its next earnings report.

Devon Energy's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 2.2% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.23.

MPC and DVN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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