Michael Lavery over at Piper Sandler noted Tilray (TLRY.TO, TLRY) reported US$185.8 million in Q3 2025 revenue, well below its $194.4M estimate, and that its $9.0M adjusted EBITDA was below the Piper Sandler $11.6M estimate.

Piper Sandler now expects F25 sales of $850-900M (prior: $950M to $1B), which reflects a $50M headwind from SKU rationalization and strategic initiatives, but already included some M&A contribution. In F3Q25, Piper Sandler noted, Tilray's Project 420 cost-savings initiative generated $20.6M of savings of its projected $33.0M in total savings. Lavery said: "We continue to expect gross margin improvement in its Beverage Alcohol segment from repatriated production and distributor consolidation, but top-line trends are challenged." He added: "We expect cannabis stocks (TLRY included) will likely continue to trade largely on US regulatory expectations".

Piper Sandler lowered its F25E sales from near $850M to near $840M, its F26E sales from near $895M to near $875M. It lowered its PT from $2 to $1, now using near 1x C26 EV/Sales (prior: nea 2x) on diminished US regulatory expectations. PS has a Neutral rating on the stock.