Jarden Research cut its base case Brent oil price forecast for the remainder of the year to $65 per barrel from $75 per barrel, the firm said in a note Thursday.

It also cut its price forecast for the 2026 to 2027 period to $65 per barrel from $75 per barrel.

Oil prices have been extremely volatile as markets try to understand the implications of the tariff levied by the US as well as the possible reciprocal tariffs on the global economic growth outlook. While the impact on global oil demand is uncertain, any long-term tariff regime will likely have negative consequences for global economic growth and, consequently, oil demand, Jarden said.

Global oil demand could fall by 3 million barrels per day compared with the current annual demand of 102 million barrels per day in a bear scenario if trade wars escalate.

There is also uncertainty around the supply side of oil markets, depending upon how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) responds to any emerging sign of demand destruction caused by trade uncertainty.

OPEC earlier announced surprise plans to increase oil production by over 400,000 barrels a day from May, which is speculated to be in response to certain OPEC members exceeding their production quotas.

The analysts believe that OPEC+ members desire a target Brent oil price closer to $80 per barrel to maintain and balance their budgets and that OPEC's decision to increase oil output was made before consideration was given to the impact of the tariffs.

Their base case assumes OPEC+ will be willing to take necessary action to keep oil markets broadly in balance to maximize OPEC member revenues without causing market volatility or inflation, Jarden said.