Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So should Allbirds (NASDAQ:BIRD) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. Let's start with an examination of the business' cash, relative to its cash burn.

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When Might Allbirds Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at December 2024, Allbirds had cash of US$67m and no debt. In the last year, its cash burn was US$68m. That means it had a cash runway of around 12 months as of December 2024. Notably, however, analysts think that Allbirds will break even (at a free cash flow level) before then. In that case, it may never reach the end of its cash runway. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

Check out our latest analysis for Allbirds

How Well Is Allbirds Growing?

Allbirds actually ramped up its cash burn by a whopping 65% in the last year, which shows it is boosting investment in the business. As if that's not bad enough, the operating revenue also dropped by 25%, making us very wary indeed. Considering both these metrics, we're a little concerned about how the company is developing. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years .

How Easily Can Allbirds Raise Cash?

Since Allbirds can't yet boast improving growth metrics, the market will likely be considering how it can raise more cash if need be. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Allbirds' cash burn of US$68m is about 161% of its US$42m market capitalisation. Given just how high that expenditure is, relative to the company's market value, we think there's an elevated risk of funding distress, and we would be very nervous about holding the stock.

So, Should We Worry About Allbirds' Cash Burn?

We must admit that we don't think Allbirds is in a very strong position, when it comes to its cash burn. While its cash runway wasn't too bad, its cash burn relative to its market cap does leave us rather nervous. There's no doubt that shareholders can take a lot of heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven before too long. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. An in-depth examination of risks revealed 4 warning signs for Allbirds that readers should think about before committing capital to this stock.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.