Why ExxonMobil Stock Soared 10.6% in Q1 While the S&P 500 Had Its Worst Quarter Since 2022

Motley Fool
04-09
  • The S&P 500 struggled in Q1 but ExxonMobil stock surged on solid numbers.
  • ExxonMobil expects to generate steady cash flows even if oil prices fall.
  • The stock should also pay you a bigger dividend regardless of what the market does.

The S&P 500 may have logged its worst quarter since 2022 in the first three months of 2025 with its 4.6% drop, but shares of ExxonMobil (XOM 0.73%) defied the odds and returned 10.6% in Q1 this year, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

ExxonMobil delivered solid numbers for 2024, generated billions of dollars in cash flows, increased its dividend for the 42nd consecutive year, and laid out plans to grow its earnings and cash flows significantly through 2030. Here's all you need to know.

ExxonMobil continues to grow cash flows

ExxonMobil announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 numbers earlier this year. Having acquired Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal worth $60 billion last year, ExxonMobil's production in the Permian Basin and Guyana hit a record high in 2024.

Although ExxonMobil's earnings fell around 6% in 2024 because of a $2 billion impairment in California due to regulatory hurdles to restarting production, it generated $55 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow worth nearly $31 billion on net income of $33.7 billion. ExxonMobil also saved $2.7 billion in costs during the year, and expects to save nearly $6 billion more in through 2030.

These strong numbers explain why ExxonMobil remained steady in the beginning of 2025 despite weak crude oil prices.

If you look at ExxonMobil's stock price chart, though, you'll see that much of the oil stock's gains in Q1 came in the second half of March. That's also when crude oil prices rebounded after falling steadily since mid-January. Brent crude oil, for instance, crossed the $70 per barrel mark by March 31 after slipping below $66 per barrel in the second week of the month.

With crude oil plunging, is ExxonMobil stock a buy now?

With President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs toppling the stock markets and sending oil prices crashing on fears of a global recession, ExxonMobil stock has already given up all of its Q1 gains and then some, as of this writing.

It's not the time to panic, though. ExxonMobil has survived bigger storms, and its 42-year unbeatable dividend growth track record is testimony to the company's resilience even during the worst of times. The oil giant expects to deliver another $20 billion in earnings through 2030 at a real Brent crude oil price of $65 per barrel.

For the first quarter too, ExxonMobil's preliminary numbers hint at a sequential earnings growth, with a potential earnings growth of up to $900 million from its upstream business alone.

Given ExxonMobil's history and solid cash-flow profile, this 3.8%-yielding stock is among the few you'd want to buy to play Trump's energy plans.

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