By Mackenzie Tatananni

Gold stocks have been on a tear lately, though Wall Street has begun to question whether the good times will continue.

The price of gold has risen 17.3% since the start of the year. Eclipsing those gains have been shares of gold miners themselves. Barrick Gold has risen 17% in 2025, while Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines have done even better, surging 26% and 33%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF was up 3.5% to $284.70 on Wednesday, putting it on track for its largest same-day percentage increase since a 4.9% jump on March 24, 2020. The fund, which is physically backed by gold, has gained 18% this year.

Newmont, Barrick, and AEM were up 4.1%, 3.7%, and 3.8%, respectively, on Wednesday, pulling ahead of the broader market. The most active gold futures contract gained 3.7% to $3,099.60, hovering below the intraday record high of $3,201.60 reached last week.

Analysts with BofA Securities reiterated their bullish stance on gold earlier this month, noting that an impressive run in 2024 was followed by a significant milestone as it reached a price of $3,000 in March.

"While traditionally inflation and real yields have been the main drivers of gold prices, recently central bank buying has emerged as the primary catalyst behind the current gold price increase," the firm wrote.

UBS analysts noted that gold miners offer operational leverage to gold price upside, potential growth, and dividend yields. However, they believe players in the sector must rebuild trust after years missed forecasts.

"After years of generally missing guidance it is difficult to have conviction that the gold sector will hit its targets and restore investor confidence," the analysts wrote. "Whilst some companies will inevitably miss production guidance, do expectations have to be more realistic after years of disappointment?"

Considering the last decade, the gold sector's track record in generating value-accretive returns from growth and mergers and acquisitions has been poor. However, things appear to be taking a turn for the better, and the risk-reward balance remains attractive so far into 2025, UBS said.

The firm sees little rationale for industry-wide unit cost deflation in the next two years "but at least 2025 cost guidance is likely to be more realistic." The analysts noted that a number of the sector's major players, Newmont included, no longer project declining unit costs in the next two to three years.

With the price of gold edging above $3,000 an ounce, UBS expects consensus estimates to be lifted higher over the next few weeks.

The firm singled out Barrick as a preferred global large-cap gold miner, arguing that the stock "offers compelling value" with near-term challenges reflected in its conservative full-year guidance and depressed EV/Ebitda multiple.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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April 09, 2025 12:39 ET (16:39 GMT)

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