Chevron (CVX) is expected to report "strong underlying results" in fiscal Q1 even though divestitures and the startup of the Future Growth Project at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan make the quarter "a little messy" financially, UBS analysts said in a Friday note.

The investment firm said it expects Q1 adjusted earnings of $2.08, within the consensus estimate range of $2 to $2.25 per share. Chevron is due to report Q1 results on May 2.

UBS said it also expects a "strong operational update coming" with the start up of the Future Growth Project by its 50%-owned affiliate Tengizchevroil, which is on track to reach full capacity within a 3-month window.

The firm said it expects quarterly buybacks for the rest of the year to slow down to $3.5 billion from the over $4 billion pace in Q1 due to crude oil prices, which have plummeted since the start of April as the trade war between the U.S. and China has intensified.

UBS analysts said they still expect a "$5 billion affiliate dividend to hold, even at $65 Brent."

The firm reiterated its buy rating on the stock and lowered its price target by $8 to $177.

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