The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1117 ET - Grains give back some early gains as traders mull the importance to place on President Trump's post on Truth Social on Sunday stating that "NOBODY is getting 'off the hook' [sic]" for tariffs. Friday's news about certain tech products being exempt from tariffs is supporting gains on the stock market, and helped give grain futures a boost in pre-market trade. The USDA reported a new flash sale of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Japan for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year this morning, which is a 'positive' for U.S. trader sentiment about foreign demand, Terry Reilly of Marex says. Most-active CBOT corn is down 0.2%, soybeans up 0.5%, and wheat down 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1113 ET - Deutsche Bank's U.S. economists had been holdouts on Wall Street in recent months--one of the few investment-bank research teams that forecast the Fed would hold rates steady through all of 2025. But tariffs that look more severe than initially expected now mean the Fed is more likely to act to cushion the economy, Deutsche economist Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues write. "The trade policy announcements represent a significant adverse supply shock to the economy," they write. Deutsche Bank now expects the Fed to respond with a quarter-point rate cut in December, followed by two more cuts in January and March of next year. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1108 ET - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper up 0.1% at $9,193 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.6% at $2,383.50 a ton. Lower demand, given a weaker U.S. economic outlook and sector-specific tariffs, will push aluminum prices to a monthly average low of around $2,000 a ton in the third quarter of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate. Prices should eventually rebound to around $2,300 a ton by December, though this is lower than previous expectations of $2,650 a ton, the analysts say in a note. Any rebound post-2025 will be more muted than previously hoped, given a buildup of inventories. While further U.S. tariff escalation and therefore global growth downgrades would further hit demand, substantial output curtailments if prices fall below $2,000 a ton would likely help rebalance the market, Goldman adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1059 ET - Gold futures slip as the U.S. offers a temporary reprieve on select Chinese-made tech products, although they stay close to record highs. Futures fall 0.4% to $3,230.60 a troy ounce, but remain up 8.6% on week and near Friday's record high of $3,263/oz. The strong on-week rally reflects the Trump administration's erratic trade maneuvers rattling market confidence, pushing investors toward the safe-haven asset, StoneX's Fawad Razaqzada says in a note. Markets initially welcomed the reprieve in a filing late Friday with risk assets since staging a modest recovery. Gold looks a touch overbought and a period of consolidation may be warranted, though expectations for the precious metal to continue to continue to rally in the longer-term remain intact, Razaqzada says. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1052 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME have been on a winning streak since the middle of last week, which appears to have continued this morning, with the most-active contract up 1.3%. Weakness in key indicators like pork cutout prices were the key parts behind the contracts previous weakness, says Austin Schroeder of Price Futures Group in a note -- and are serving to give futures a boost. Pork cutout prices were reported higher by the USDA at the end of the day Friday, with the carcass cutout up $2.26 per hundredweight to $91.96 per cwt late Friday. Pork butt also gained more than $5 per cwt, and pork belly gained over $3.50 per cwt. Live cattle is up 0.4% in morning trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1030 ET - Strength seen in CBOT grain futures after the April WASDE report from the USDA, which most-notably showed a tighter supply-demand outlook for U.S. corn, appears to have faded in early trading Monday. Most-active corn is down 0.1%, wheat is down 1.2%, but soybeans are up 0.4%. For corn in particular, multiple analysts call the most-active contract 'overbought,' meaning that its due for some selling after the late-week optimism last week. "The corn market has become quite overbought with momentum indicators up in the area where they tend to top out," says Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Oil futures are gaining but off the morning's highs as demand concerns remain intact, with OPEC cutting its growth outlook for this year by 150,000 barrels a day. Oil price gains reflect the decline in Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar that's positive for European buyers, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "However, we do not expect prices to rise significantly above this morning's high levels," he adds. WTI is up 0.3% at $61.71 a barrel, and Brent is up 0.4% at $65.04 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0955 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher along with oil and equities after electronic goods were given U.S. tariff relief over the weekend. The seasonal retreat in weather-driven demand is likely to increase the size of natural gas storage injections, which could shift inventories to a surplus by May, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Longer-term considerations may be more balanced by trader positioning pulled between recent losses and a fundamentally under-supplied outlook into 2026," he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.5% at $3.581/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0859 ET - Oil prices rise more than 1% in afternoon trade despite OPEC cutting its oil-demand forecast for this year, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs. Brent and WTI are up 1.4% to $65.67 and $62.38 a barrel, respectively, supported by President Trump's decision to give many tech products a reprieve from reciprocal tariffs and China reporting a rebound in crude imports. Still, mounting fears of a tariff-induced recession continue to weigh on the global oil-consumption outlook, capping further price gains. OPEC cut its global economic growth expectations and said it now forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year from 1.45 million barrels a day previously. Traders now await a closely watched oil-market monthly report from the International Energy Agency due on Tuesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0741 ET - Gold futures slip, but hold near record highs on safe-haven demand and dollar weakness. Futures are down 0.2% at $3,239.0 a troy ounce, near Friday's record high of $3,263/oz. The precious metal has been supported by a jump in ETF inflows, a weaker greenback, and investors shifting to safe-haven assets amid market turmoil, SP Angel analysts say in a note. A sharp selloff in the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve has also likely triggered additional gold purchases, SP Angel says. Gold and Treasurys usually compete for safe-haven status, and investors are likely cutting Treasury positions in favor of gold given concerns over the U.S. economy, SP Angel writes. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0643 ET - Starbucks is seeking to improve the vibe in its North American cafes to help boost sales, with the chain Monday announcing stricter guidelines for barista dress. Starting May 12, the chain is asking baristas to wear black shirts along with khaki, black or blue denim bottoms. Starbucks said the clearer dress code will provide a more consistent coffeehouse experience across its thousands of stores. (heather.haddon@wsj.com ; @heatherhaddon)

0621 ET - Palm oil ended lower amid trade uncertainties and falling crude oil prices. U.S. tariffs have sparked recession fears, weighing on crude oil and the vegetable oil market more broadly, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures says in a research note. Palm oil production is expected to continue rising in April, while export demand could improve to an extent, it says. Loose supply conditions and the sustained impact of global tariff shocks could keep weighing on the edible oil market, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery falls 42 ringgit to 4,170 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 14, 2025 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)

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