Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$141 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$90.50. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Toll Brothers' current trading price of US$94.03 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Toll Brothers’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

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Is Toll Brothers Still Cheap?

According to our valuation model, Toll Brothers seems to be fairly priced at around 14% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Toll Brothers today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $108.92, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Toll Brothers’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

Check out our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

What does the future of Toll Brothers look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 6.8% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Toll Brothers, at least in the short term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? TOL’s future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on TOL, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Toll Brothers at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that Toll Brothers has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.