CEE MARKETS-FX drifts in quiet trading as markets eye tariffs and Ukraine talks

Reuters
04-15
CEE MARKETS-FX drifts in quiet trading as markets eye tariffs and Ukraine talks

WARSAW, April 15 (Reuters) - Central European currencies traded sideways on Tuesday, with the zloty and forint near multi-month lows, as markets looked abroad for new direction, analysts said.

The market focus has been on the ever-shifting tariff headlines. News the U.S. was removing smartphones and other electronics from its duties on China over the weekend provided some relief, although comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the reprieve is likely to be short-term.

"Monday trading indicated a lack of interest in CEE markets these days, and of course, the next move will again be determined by global events. The market is likely to remain in this muted mode this week and next," ING analysts wrote in a note.

They also pointed to monetary policy meetings in central Europe in late April and early May as upcoming drivers and reiterated their stronger view on the Czech crown versus its regional peers.

"The Czech National Bank $(CNB.AU)$ will not be open to cutting rates below 3% as the market prices in at the moment, supporting CZK vs PLN, whereas the National Bank of Poland is close to resuming the rate-cutting cycle regardless of the global story," ING said in a note earlier this week.

In late March, the CNB paused a more than year-long monetary easing campaign for a second time, leaving its main interest rate unchanged at 3.75% and signalling that all options were open for its next policy move as inflation risks build.

By 0824 GMT the Czech crown edged 0.1% higher against the euro to 25.0840, near its strongest level since early April, but remained on the weaker side of the key 25 level.

In Poland, a March inflation release confirmed an earlier estimate of 4.9% price growth on the year.

In early April, Poland's central bank Governor Adam Glapinski signalled that a rate cut could happen as soon as May, if further data supports easing inflation pressures after lower-than-expected CPI readings so far this year. Borrowing costs in Poland have remained unchanged since October 2023.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.1% at 4.2850 per euro, off of its weakest levels since December to which it fell earlier this month from a 10-year high hit in late February.

"Peace, quiet, and when there is a slight calming, the zloty strengthens a bit against the euro," a Warsaw-based trader said.

"Further everything is a function of what happens in the U.S. regarding tariffs... The second thing is of course peace talks on Ukraine," the trader added.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= traded flat at 410.60, near its weakest level since January, 410.95, touched on Monday after local trading closed.

Stock indexes in the region inched higher 0.4-1.4% on Tuesday, but Polish energy companies fell after Prime Minister Donald Tusk said energy firms should prioritise providing cheap power rather than maximising profits as part of a call for a "repolonisation" of the economy.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1024 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0840

25.1020

+0.07%

+0.50%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

410.6000

410.7000

+0.02%

+0.20%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2850

4.2885

+0.08%

-0.19%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9779

4.9780

+0.00%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1500

117.2500

+0.09%

-0.17%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2042.76

2025.1600

+0.87%

+16.05%

Budapest

.BUX

86712.54

85957.65

+0.88%

+9.31%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2644.97

2608.21

+1.41%

+20.66%

Bucharest

.BETI

17131.77

17057.76

+0.43%

+2.46%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2750

0.0050

+151bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6320

-0.0010

+157bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1130

NULL

+162bps

#VALUE!

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3960

-0.0340

+263bps

-2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.7390

-0.0430

+268bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2520

-0.0190

+276bps

+1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.46

3.23

3.05

3.69

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

7.00

6.86

6.48

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.51

4.03

3.78

5.61

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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