ANZ raises year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce

Reuters
04-16
UPDATE 1-ANZ raises year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce

Adds details and background

April 16 (Reuters) - Australian bank ANZ ANZ.AX raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,600 per ounce and the six-month forecast to $3,500, pointing to heightened risks of a global recession and rising inflation stoking demand for the safe-haven asset.

Gold would remain on a strong footing for the foreseeable future, with a trade war disrupting global supply chains, escalating geopolitical tensions and driving a changing interest rate outlook, the bank said in a research note on Wednesday.

The price of gold has jumped more than 24% so far this year and hit an all-time peak of $3,274.75 per ounce earlier on Wednesday. GOL/

ANZ expects emerging market central banks to continue increasing their share of gold in their reserves, estimating demand to be in the range of 900–1,000 tons in 2025.

"The ongoing trade tension will deplete trust in U.S. assets, motivating emerging markets central banks to boost their gold reserves. And the U.S.'s focus on China should see Beijing continue to favour non-USD assets," the bank said in the note.

However, de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, a quicker resolution of tariff issues with other trading partners and improvement in the U.S. economic outlook could weigh on gold prices, ANZ economists said.

Gold could also fall if the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged despite market expectations for three to four rate cuts, they added.

Traders see around 89 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts by 2025-end. FEDWATCH

ANZ also expects silver's rise to continue towards $34/oz.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sonali Paul)

((anushree.ashishMukherjee@thomsonreuters.com;))

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