President Trump stoked confusion this past weekend about tariffs on smartphones, but investors are viewing an electronics exemption announced Friday night as an important temporary win for Apple (APPL) and other China-dependent technology giants.

The move is also feeding a growing sense that Trump has a willingness to listen and bend on tariffs — as long as the aggrieved party has the political pull to get the president's ear.

The excitement for investors came after a late Friday evening pivot from the Trump administration where it announced exclusions for smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics from the president's "reciprocal" tariffs. 

The president then pushed back in a Sunday afternoon social media post claiming "there was no Tariff 'exception' announced on Friday" (even as the White House itself described the move as a "Clarification of Exemptions" with U.S. Customs and Border Protection adding it was a "Reciprocal Tariff Exclusion for Specified Products").

The president says these products are simply moving to a different tariff "bucket," telling reporters Sunday evening that a separate rate for semiconductor tariffs will be announced over the next week.

Trump added his goal is to "uncomplicate" things by moving production to the US but that companies will have a say.

"We'll also talk to companies, you have to show a certain flexibility," the president said as he returned to Washington, D.C. from Florida, adding that relief could be in the offing for "some products, maybe."

Either way the fact remains that Trump has offered at least a temporary boost to companies with close links to China, and investors are responding by sending stocks of directly-impacted companies like Apple and Dell (DELL) higher on Monday morning.

These technology companies' goods are still subject to 20% blanket tariffs on China over fentanyl and likely face legacy sector-specific tariffs from Trump 1.0 and the Biden-era, but they are now able to sidestep the lion's share of the 145% rate that is now in place for other goods.

It also appears the move could lead to lower longer term rates for technology, with Ed Mills at Raymond James noting the national security-related tariffs that could ultimately be applied to semiconductors "will likely be in the 25% range" — potentially representing a significant break for what at least Chinese importers had been facing.

"This announcement will continue to elevate business uncertainty, raise questions of fairness, and, if viewed as 'arbitrary and capricious' from a legal perspective, raise the legal risks," Mills added.

'Trump does Tim Apple a solid'

The move is also a significant walk back of Trump's overall tariff plans, with electronics representing the top exports from China to the US.

Capitol Economics calculates that this weekend's move means the overall effective tariff rate on US imports is now 22% — down from 27% just last week.

"Trump does Tim Apple a solid," Capitol Economics summarized in a note over the weekend, adding "the success of Apple's Tim Cook in getting its smartphones exempted likely to boost the lobbying by firms in other sectors."

Indeed, Cook has emerged as one of the CEOs with the closest relationship to Trump, speaking to him regularly and awarded a prominent seat near the president on Trump's inauguration day last January.

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These latest twists has also left some to ask whether small businesses — without the political connections — will be able to get the same treatment.

"It's not just about Apple or the larger companies, it's about a lot of small businesses," Tina Wells, a former importer of beauty and wellness products who is currently a coach for retail businesses, said in an interview Sunday.

She notes that the tariffs can force these smaller outlets out of business, adding that the on and off again nature of tariffs has hit her clients hard.

"What I tell founders is that we are in the messy middle," she added of the rollout of Trump's trade agenda in recent weeks, comparing it to a game of whack-a-mole.

In one case, she noted, a smaller company was able to evade the tariffs on their products by a single day in a stroke of luck that allowed it to stay in businesses.

'Conditions for political favoritism'

Larger companies certainly have more options than small businesses to dodge the tariffs, due to their worldwide networks and political relationships.

Apple, as one example, also gained attention in recent days for reportedly chartering cargo flights to move as many as 1.5 million iPhones to the United States from India quickly to get ahead of tariffs there.

Recent actions also appear to fall into a pattern seen in Trump's first term where exceptions came in a somewhat haphazard fashion seemingly tied to political connections.

The Brookings Institution has studied the issue and found that companies devoted considerable resources in 2017 and 2018 to try to skirt Trump's duties but with politically favored importers often winning relief.

"Tariffs create conditions for political favoritism," added Erica York of the Tax Foundation in a social media post over the weekend, citing a second study of the Trump's first term that highlighted an apparent link between political donations and the receipt of tariff relief.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and a range of Trump aides over the weekend tried to underline how firmly electronics will be in the administration's sights in the coming days. Trump also said Sunday that "NOBODY is getting 'off the hook.'" 

Yet carveouts for business world allies was something Trump often signaled on the campaign trail.

"Oh, we have exceptions," he said during a campaign trail stop in Chicago last October where he also told a story of Apple's Cook visiting him during his first term to successfully lobby for his company.

He added a couple of days later in a podcast interview with Patrick Bet-David that he had spoken to Cook just that week to discuss relief for the company in his second term.

"Tim, I've got to get elected first," Trump said he told the CEO.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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