Packaging Corporation PKG is set to release first-quarter 2025 results on April 22, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.15 billion, indicating 8.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.22 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s first-quarter earnings has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 29.1%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

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PKG’s Earnings Surprise History

Packaging Corp’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 3.6%.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for PKG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q1 Performance

Packaging Corp’s first-quarter results are expected to reflect the impacts of lower containerboard volume with two operating days and due to scheduled maintenance outages at the counts Tennessee and Valdosta, GA-based mills.  Price and mix impacts for the Packaging segment are expected to be favorable at 3.6% for the quarter, per our model.

Demand in the Packaging segment is expected to have been strong in the first quarter, with corrugated shipments per day continuing to strengthen. Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to increase 5.2% year over year in the quarter under review, indicating stable packaging demand.

The estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.96 billion, suggesting growth of 8.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our model estimates the segment’s operating income at $264 million, indicating growth of 29.5% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, prices and mix are expected to have been flat sequentially. We expect volume to rise 2.7% year over year. We anticipate a pricing/mix impact of 2.1% for the first quarter.

The estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $172 million for the March-end quarter, suggesting growth of 8% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for the segment’s operating income is $38 million, indicating a 27.3% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Packaging Corp’s Stock Price Performance

Over the past year, PKG shares have gained 7.3% compared with the industry’s 2.6% growth.

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Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Tenaris S.A. TS is expected to release its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30. It has an Earnings ESP of +17.98% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tenaris’ earnings is pegged at 89 cents per share, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 29.9%. TS has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 10.9%.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW, anticipated to release its first-quarter 2025 on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +1.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Illinois Tool Works’ first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.34 per share, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 4.1%. ITW has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 3.6%.

Emerson Electric Co. EMR, expected to release earnings soon, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The consensus estimate for Emerson Electric’s earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 is pegged at $1.42 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 4.4%. EMR has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 4.3%.

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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Tenaris S.A. (TS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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