Netflix Earnings Will Put the Stock's Strength to the Test

Dow Jones
04-17

Tech stocks are in a world of pain -- except for Netflix.

The streaming company's shares are beating the broader market, up 8% this year and nearly 60% over the past 12 months. But if the streaming company provides rocky guidance when it reports first-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, shares could feel some pain.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Netflix, the company behind Bridgerton and Squid Game, to post earnings of $5.67 a share on revenue of $10.5 billion. That would be an increase from $5.28 a share on revenue of $9.4 billion posted in the same period last year.

"We believe the flow through of record 4Q subscriber performance and price increases will jump start growth for the year while the return of several key franchises including Stranger Things, Squid Games and Wednesday sustains momentum," UBS analyst John Hodulik wrote in a note on Monday. He rates the stock a Buy with a $1,140 price target, implying 19% upside from where shares were trading on Wednesday.

In January, Netflix reported a net gain of 18.9 million paid subscriptions during the fourth quarter, which far exceeded projections. However, the company will no longer report subscriber numbers starting this quarter.

That puts the focus on the company's guidance. Netflix said in January that it expects 2025 revenue to be between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion. That would equate to 12% to 14% year-over-year growth.

The economic environment has changed over the last few weeks with the implementation of the president's tariff policy, which has taken a toll on consumer sentiment and fueled worries about inflation. One risk for Netflix: If prices rise, consumers may pull back on nonessential spending such as streaming services and other subscriptions.

Netflix itself has raised prices, announcing further increases last quarter. Netflix also offers a lower-priced ad-tier, which could help it hold onto subscribers if users do cut back on spending but still want access to the content Netflix provides.

"Netflix is positioned to accelerate ad tier revenue contribution for the next several years by adding more live events, improving its advertising solutions and targeting, and broadening its content strategy, " Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese, who rates the stock as Outperform with a $1,150 price target, wrote in a note last week. "While massive subscriber growth was the primary driver in 2024, we expect price increases to drive revenue growth in 2025, and the ad tier to drive revenue higher in 2026."

However, advertising could take a hit if the economy weakens and companies pull back on marketing budgets. Advertising has become a growing source of revenue for Netflix. Gregory Peters, Netflix co-CEO, said on the company's earnings call in January that Netflix has "doubled our ads revenue year over year last year. We expect to double it again this year."

Wall Street will be tuned in to see if Netflix's guidance will reflect a tough economic environment or more of that strength. A lot is riding on the results: Shares of Netflix are solidly in the green this year despite double-digit declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

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