U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April
U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April
U.S. gas storage about 4% below five-year average
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Wednesday to a 10-week low on near-record output and a decline in daily flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.
In addition, analysts said forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks should allow utilities to keep pushing lots of gas into storage through early May.
U.S. gas stockpiles are around 4% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 8.2 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.247 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since January 31.
That decline also pushed the contract into oversold territory for a second time this month.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.
Looking ahead, however, analysts said energy firms could cut back on oil drilling in the coming weeks due to the roughly 14% drop in U.S. crude CLc1 futures so far in April.
The crude price drop was related in part to uncertainty tied to U.S. President Donald Trump's on-again off-again trade tariffs, which could reduce economic growth and oil demand. O/R
Any reduction in oil drilling in shale basins such as the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota could boost gas prices by cutting gas output.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 1.
With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 99.7 bcfd this week to 96.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were slightly higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.2 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to hold at a one-week low of 16.1 bcfd on Wednesday, down from an average of 16.7 bcfd over the prior seven days, according to LSEG data.
That daily LNG feedgas decline was mostly due to lower expected flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi export plant in service and under construction in Texas to 1.7 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 2.2 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 2.3 bcfd over the prior seven days. The Corpus Christi plant includes three 0.8-bcfd operating trains and seven 0.2-bcfd mid-scale trains under construction.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a one-week high of around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a 10-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 11 Forecast | Week ended Apr 4 Actual | Year ago Apr 11 | Five-year average Apr 11 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +22 | +57 | +46 | +50 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,852 | 1,830 | 2,326 | 1,920 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -3.5% | -2.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.27 | 3.33 | 1.79 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.60 | 11.32 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.37 | 12.46 | 10.06 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 107 | 120 | 115 | 141 | 136 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 53 | 45 | 44 | 40 | 37 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 160 | 165 | 159 | 181 | 173 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.1 | 106.7 | 106.8 | 100.2 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.9 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.5 | 115.1 | 114.7 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 10.7 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 10.3 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 14.9 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 27.0 | 23.8 | 25.4 | 29.0 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.0 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 22.5 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.9 | 74.0 | 71.2 | 73.8 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 109.2 | 99.7 | 96.7 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 89 | 90 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 87 | 89 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 89 | 89 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 18 | Week ended Apr 11 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 18 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 31 | 35 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 14 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.27 | 3.57 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.10 | 3.24 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.75 | 2.81 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.94 | 3.01 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.00 | 3.24 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.29 | 3.40 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.04 | 3.26 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.00 | 2.30 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.69 | 1.49 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 41.79 | 44.25 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 51.22 | 53.84 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 25.17 | 33.99 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 30.01 | 33.83 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 14.01 | 18.70 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Richard Chang)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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