By Harriet Torry and Alana Pipe

The trade fight with China is hitting the U.S. in two directions.

The huge tariff barriers erected by both countries put the brightest spotlight on the massive amount of Chinese-made goods -- $438.9 billion last year -- that pack containerships and cargo planes heading to U.S. docks and airports.

While overshadowed, the U.S. still sent $143.5 billion worth of energy, agricultural and other goods the other way.

Nearly half that amount came from products like energy supplies and produce flowing from just five states: Texas, California, Washington, Louisiana and North Carolina.

Those exports are at risk, now, because Beijing imposed 125% tariffs on inbound U.S. goods in response to President Trump setting levies that add up to 145% in his second term.

For the U.S. economy as a whole, exports to China are a small slice of a $29 trillion gross domestic product. But "if you're a U.S. soybean farmer, this is just about the biggest issue going at the moment," said Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics.

Energy-exporting states like Texas and Louisiana, already grappling with lower oil prices, are particularly vulnerable to China's higher levies, analysts say. Uncertainty around tariffs has caused oil prices to drop in recent weeks, reducing the incentive to drill for more.

China is also an important and growing market for liquefied natural gas exports, particularly from Texas. Energy exports account for 39% of Texas' exports to China, census data show. Organic chemicals and plastics are among the other major categories there.

"Even if you do have people that are willing to step in to take what had previously been Chinese orders, you still may have to sell that LNG at a discount to attract those new buyers," said Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at investment bank Mizuho Americas.

There are also hopes Texas could benefit if Trump's tariffs have his desired effect: bringing more manufacturing back to the U.S. "We certainly want to trade more as the top export state, but if there is a shift in manufacturing activity from China to North America, Texas is going to be the big winner in the U.S.," said Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Business.

Still, many economists are skeptical that job creation will happen on a large scale because planning and building new factories is a complex and lengthy process.

Another risk from the trade war: agricultural products like fruit, which make up a sizable amount of California, Louisiana and Washington's exports to China, can also be sourced from other countries relatively easily, said John Diamond, an economist at Rice University in Houston.

"Timing is such a crucial component to determine the real impacts -- the shorter-term this is, obviously the less the pain," he said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promised on Sunday that farmers would be bailed out if hurt by the president's trade war.

Louisiana topped the U.S. with the highest per-capita exports to China, at $2,213.50 per person, and the fourth-highest exports overall. Louisiana ranks as both a major agricultural and energy exporter to China, sending products like fruits and plants, cereals and oil across the Pacific.

California, which ranks a distant second to Texas in total exports to China, sends items like medical instruments, machinery and fruit.

For Washington state, the big exports are produce and aircraft. Beijing has told Chinese airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets and is requiring carriers to seek approval of already ordered planes, according to people familiar with the matter, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Longer term, the Chinese market is crucial; Boeing has forecast it will account for a fifth of the world's airplane deliveries in the next two decades.

In North Carolina, big exports to China include pharmaceutical products, building materials and tobacco. Farmers there are concerned about the new trade barriers, said Lee Wicker, deputy director for the North Carolina Growers Association.

"They're good customers and they pay a good price for our tobacco that's very expensive to produce" due to its labor intensity, he said.

Write to Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com and Alana Pipe at alana.pipe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 17, 2025 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)

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