In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:PPBI) shareholders, since the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 21%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 21% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 13% in the same timeframe.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Pacific Premier Bancorp's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 23% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 19% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Pacific Premier Bancorp has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Pacific Premier Bancorp will grow revenue in the future.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Pacific Premier Bancorp the TSR over the last 3 years was -38%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
While the broader market gained around 6.1% in the last year, Pacific Premier Bancorp shareholders lost 5.5% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Pacific Premier Bancorp is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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