Countdown to Southwest (LUV) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Estimates Beyond Revenue and EPS

Zacks
04-21

In its upcoming report, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly loss of $0.18 per share, reflecting an increase of 50% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $6.4 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.2%.

The current level reflects a downward revision of 17.6% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.

Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.

Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Southwest metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Operating Revenues- Passenger [$M]' at $5.80 billion. The estimate points to a change of +1.5% from the year-ago quarter.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Operating Revenues- Other' should come in at $587.23 million. The estimate indicates a change of +2.1% from the prior-year quarter.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Operating Revenues- Freight [$M]' of $46.16 million. The estimate indicates a change of +9.9% from the prior-year quarter.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Load factor' reaching 81.3%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 78.3% in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts forecast 'Revenue passenger miles (RPMs)' to reach 33.52 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 33.09 billion.

The consensus estimate for 'Available seat miles (ASMs)' stands at 41.32 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 42.25 billion.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Passenger revenue per ASM (PRASM)' should arrive at 14.02 cents. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 13.52 cents.

Analysts expect 'CASM, excluding Fuel and oil expense, special items, and profitsharing expense' to come in at 12.99 cents. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 12.25 cents in the same quarter of the previous year.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (RASM)' will likely reach 15.53 cents. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 14.98 cents in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts predict that the 'Fuel consumed' will reach 502.23 Mgal. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 524 Mgal.

The consensus among analysts is that 'CASM, excluding Fuel and oil expense and special items' will reach 13.11 cents. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 12.25 cents in the same quarter of the previous year.

It is projected by analysts that the 'CASM, excluding special items' will reach 16.13 cents. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 15.87 cents in the same quarter of the previous year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Southwest here>>>

Southwest shares have witnessed a change of -29% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -5.6% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), LUV is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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