Tesla (TSLA, Financial) is gearing up to release its first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, and it's shaping up to be a pivotal moment. While analysts are expecting revenue to tick up slightly to around $21.5 billion, profit is expected to dip. Forecasts point to earnings per share falling to $0.42, down from $0.45 a year ago and well below the previous quarter's $0.73.

The decline ties back to a tough quarter for deliveries — just 336,681 vehicles made it to customers, the lowest figure in more than two years. That slump is setting the stage for what could be a tense earnings call.

There's also growing pressure on Elon Musk to shift his attention back to Tesla. Analysts like Dan Ives at Wedbush have flagged concerns about Musk's outside commitments, especially as Tesla's brand has taken some hits and geopolitical factors like tariffs weigh on operations.

Still, there's a longer-term view in play. Deepwater Asset Management is looking past 2025, betting on a rebound by 2026. That outlook hinges on stronger demand, a cheaper model, and real movement on Tesla's autonomy and robotics plans.

Options markets suggest traders expect a big reaction, with implied volatility pointing to a possible 10% move after results drop.