Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is stepping back from the government efficiency commission he helped create at the start of President Trump's second term. But not because DOGE, as it's known, has accomplished its mission.

DOGE, in fact, is getting its own wings clipped as the Trump administration tries to formalize the spending cuts DOGE has sought. Congress is now taking up a plan to cut $9.3 billion in spending on USAID, PBS, NPR, and a few other agencies DOGE has targeted. Those cuts are dramatically smaller than the DOGE commission's aims, and even those limited cuts could fail to materialize.

Musk started DOGE with a goal of cutting $2 trillion in federal spending over an unspecified time frame. As the work began, Musk lowered the goal to $1 trillion, then $500 billion. DOGE currently claims it has saved $160 billion in taxpayer money.

But federal spending cuts aren't real unless Congress, which controls the government's budget, either claws back spending it has already approved or cuts future spending. And that's where the DOGE actions are running into trouble.

"DOGE has been more bark than bite," budget analyst Jessica Riedl of the Manhattan Institute said. "Despite claims of saving $160 billion thus far, the actual figure is likely well short of $10 billion."

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The House measure known as a rescission package would undo spending Congress has already approved, which is part of what Musk and Trump have been trying to accomplish. Mostly it would formalize the dismantling of the Agency for International Development, which DOGE has already neutered by firing staff, closing offices, and canceling contracts.

"These have been some of the highest-profile DOGE actions of the last few months, so the White House is putting them on paper and trying to get Congress to approve the cuts to make them official," explained Henrietta Treyz, co-founder of research firm Veda Partners.

The $9.3 billion rescission package will only get Republican votes. It could pass in the House, but analysts expect it to fail in the Senate, where some Republicans support USAID and robust foreign engagement. "A lot of the Republicans are proud of the spending they've gotten included in prior budgets across these items," Treyz said. "It's my view that while this bill can be passed in the House, I don't know that it has the votes in the Senate."

If this small package of spending cuts does fail, it will leave the Trump White House with no DOGE cuts formally enacted by Congress. That leaves a very peculiar situation at the agencies DOGE has targeted.

"Most of what the administration has done is stop paying for things, canceling specific contracts, or laying off specific workers," Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said. "What they don't have the ability to do is actually cancel the funding that is going to pay for these purposes."

As with many other issues in the Trump administration, DOGE has taken novel actions of dubious legality that have generated a flurry of litigation. The basic question is whether the Trump administration can refuse to spend money Congress has provided for specific purposes. Previous administrations broadly executed the laws Congress enacted, but Trump claims he doesn't have to. The Supreme Court may ultimately have to decide.

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Meanwhile, the DOGE cutbacks leave some federal agencies heavily pruned or barely functioning — yet still funded. That raises the question of what happens to that money. Some congressional appropriations expire if not spent by a specific date, which can vary by years. Other congressional appropriations never expire. So, in some cases, depending on the outcome of litigation, the next president could reestablish agencies Trump has gutted, with the money already at hand.

Trump could also ask Republican allies in Congress to draft additional rescission measures seeking to defund other DOGE targets not included in the current $9.3 billion package. But it would probably only try to do that if the first package passes, because a series of failed spending cuts would only draw attention to DOGE's limited powers. Musk said he's backing away from DOGE to focus more on Tesla, but he may also be jumping ship right before the sailing gets rough. 

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.

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