Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is trouncing the stock market this year, which makes the company's annual meeting in Omaha on May 3 a celebration of 60 years of good fortune, but also a moment to reflect on what is still to come.
Buffett's star has never burned brighter. Few companies have created more wealth for individual investors than Berkshire, with many long-term holders sitting on stock worth $100 million or more. The Class A shares, now around $795,000 and near a record, are up 40,000-fold from around $20 in 1965, when Buffett took control of a struggling textile company and began his run as Berkshire's leader.
Berkshire has stood out in a year when many are moaning about losses in their equity portfolios. The stock is up 17%, besting the S&P 500 by 23 points, the widest margin since 2007. Buffett's decision to build a war chest of more than $300 billion of cash and equivalents -- the most of any U.S. company -- by selling a net $134 billion of stocks last year, mostly Apple shares, now looks prescient.
Yet investors may be feeling some unease given Buffett's age -- he turns 95 in August. Buffett told shareholders in his annual letter in February that "it won't be long" before his likely successor, Berkshire executive Greg Abel, replaces him as CEO. Few companies are more closely associated with their chief executive than Buffett, and that's a risk for investors. "He's the most iconic CEO in the history of CEOs," says KBW analyst Meyer Shields. "A lot of investors own the stock because of Warren Buffett."
Still, now seems like an inopportune moment to chase Berkshire stock. It looks richly valued relative to its history, and shows little sign that investors are worried the company will lose some of its magic without Buffett at the helm. The Class A shares trade for 1.7 times book value, their highest ratio since 2007, and for 25 times projected 2025 earnings -- a larger-than-usual premium to the S&P 500, which fetches about 20 times. What's more, analysts see little earnings growth this year or next.
The stock also trades at or above what some analysts and investors estimate to be the company's intrinsic value -- essentially a sum-of-the-parts valuation favored by Buffett -- versus a meaningful discount in recent years. Berkshire now fetches a slight premium to the estimate of intrinsic value published by investor Semper Augustus Investments' Chris Bloomstran, who owns the stock, against a 25% discount in early 2024, and a 10% premium to UBS analyst Brian Meredith's estimate.
Buffett, too, may view the stock as overpriced. Berkshire hasn't repurchased shares from May 2024 through early March, the latest date for which there is disclosure. That compares with buybacks of over $24 billion annually in 2020 and 2021, when the stock traded for as little as book value. Berkshire's extended valuation could mean that, in the next few years, the stock will underperform the S&P 500, the benchmark to which Buffett regularly compares Berkshire stock.
Though the stock doesn't look cheap, the giant conglomerate has never been in better financial shape. Not only was Berkshire sitting on $318 billion in cash at the end of 2024, but its operating earnings excluding investment gains are running at more than $45 billion annually after taxes. Berkshire's market value of $1.2 trillion, behind only Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms, suggests it, not Tesla, should be part of the Magnificent Seven.
At the annual meeting, Buffett will share the stage with Abel and insurance chief Ajit Jain, answering shareholder questions for 4 1/2 hours on a range of topics. Investors will get less time with him than in the past. Buffett has cut back the length of the Q&A segment by about an hour relative to last year -- perhaps in a concession to age -- and will end shareholder questions at 1 p.m. local time rather than later in the afternoon. Even so, investors will be watching him -- closely. He has sharply reduced his public appearances in recent years, and the annual meeting is the only time that investors get to hear from him at any length and see how he is faring with their own eyes.
Catherine Seifert, an analyst at CFRA, says investors will be interested in Buffett's view on Berkshire, tariffs, and the economy, as well as "qualitative elements -- how is he doing and what is his demeanor?"
The questions are apt to come fast and furious, starting with the direction of the company after Buffett steps aside. Abel, who headed Berkshire's utility business before taking on his current role in 2018, has been running Berkshire's non-insurance business on a day-to-day basis. He has earned praise from Buffett, who says Abel takes a more hands-on approach and is getting better results from the company's 100-plus subsidiaries. Buffett was a hands-off manager famous for simple, one-page employment contracts with Berkshire's operating chiefs.
While Abel is likely to be CEO, Buffett's children -- Howard, Susan, and Peter -- could play an outsize role in the future of the company. They will control the trust holding Warren Buffett's stock after his death and wield considerable power. Howard, now a board member, is likely to become chairman, and Susan, now on the board, probably will remain a director.
Buffett's stake is now 14% of the company on an economic basis, but he has 30% of the voting rights due to his ownership of the supervoting Class A stock. That stake is falling slightly each year as Buffett gives away shares. The family's influence will diminish over time after Buffett's death, as stock is donated to various philanthropies over more than a decade based on Buffett's stated wishes. But his children will exercise considerable influence during the initial years after Buffett's death.
One thing the children are likely to resist is a breakup of the company -- something Buffett opposes and fears might happen after his death. Buffett believes there are benefits to the conglomerate structure.
There also could be management changes after Buffett leaves the scene. Jain, now 73, could depart, and possibly be replaced by Joe Brandon, a Berkshire insurance executive who was head of Alleghany before Berkshire bought the company in 2022. Investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who now run about 10% of Berkshire's $300 billion equity portfolio, could take over the whole thing. It remains to be seen which role Abel will play with the equity portfolio.
Investors might also be curious about whether Berkshire will pay a dividend after Buffett departs. Buffett has long opposed one, arguing that the company's earnings and cash are better in his hands. That has been fine with the Berkshire faithful, but the policy will probably change once Buffett departs. Large, highly profitable companies -- including former holdouts Alphabet and Meta Platforms -- invariably pay dividends, and it will be harder for Abel to resist. "It would be a great way to show leadership without changing the culture," says KBW's Shields. A dividend also would take some pressure off Abel to invest Berkshire's ample earnings.
Other shareholders will have more immediate concerns -- such as whether Berkshire has taken advantage of recent stock market turmoil to invest a chunk of the $300 billion-plus in cash, more than the value of the stocks in its portfolio. Many would like to see a repeat of the 2022 meeting, when Buffett revealed about $50 billion of buys early that year, including Occidental Petroleum and Chevron.
Shields thinks investors looking for big Berkshire buys may be disappointed. Aside from a brief period in 2022, Buffett has been cautious on new investments over the past five years, and Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks in four of the past five years.
The large cash buffer serves another purpose: It would give Abel the ability to buy back a lot of stock if the shares tumble on Buffett's exit. "Buffett may be building so much cash in anticipation of the management transition," Shields says.
Investors hoping that Buffett lands what he called an elephant-size acquisition in the coming years may also be disappointed. Berkshire hasn't made a major deal since 2016, when it overpaid to purchase aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts for about $34 billion. The acquisition has been a big disappointment. The company was hit hard during Covid, and its revenue is barely back to where it stood a decade ago. Precision might now be worth what Berkshire paid for it, while the S&P 500 has tripled over the same period. Berkshire's purchase of truck-stop operator Pilot Cos. in three stages from 2017 to 2024 for $13 billion looks good, not great, with Pilot's pretax earnings down 42% to $614 million last year.
Still, it's possible that Buffett changes his mind and seeks to buy the remaining 72% of Occidental Petroleum that it doesn't now own. Or he could try to buy a big, depressed home builder like D.R. Horton or Toll Brothers, now that key founders have died. Depressed PepsiCo, whose stock is at a five-year low, might appeal to Buffett. But he is probably too loyal to Coca-Cola, a longstanding Berkshire equity holding, to consider buying rival Pepsi.
Buffett is a value investor at heart and doesn't like to pay up for acquisitions. He has a lot of competition from alternative-asset managers with mandates to invest and a willingness to pay more than Buffett.
Expect other questions about the company's rail unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, which has some of the industry's worst profit margins. Another likely topic is Berkshire Hathaway Energy, one of the country's biggest electric utilities and a large operator of wind power and other renewable energy.
Then there is auto insurer Geico, the most important part of Berkshire's huge insurance business. Geico has staged a financial revival and upgraded antiquated technology under the leadership of Combs during the past five years. But the company has shed about 15% of its auto policies to boost its profitability, while its arch rival, Progressive, has expanded rapidly and blown past Geico to become the No. 2 position in the industry behind State Farm. Some investors worry that Geico will permanently lag behind the innovative Progressive in technology, including the use of telematics, or real-time driving information, to price policies.
But no matter the questions -- or whether the answers are to their liking -- Berkshire investors are likely to savor the moment in Omaha. It may be one of their last chances to marvel at the Oracle of Omaha, bathe in his aura, and be thankful for 60 years of investing done right.
免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。