港股今日走势向好,地产股尤为抢眼,九龙仓置业(01997)盘中股价一度大涨5.24%,引发市场关注。
消息面上,美联储将于本周会议上公布年内的最后一次加息决议,市场普遍预期美联储本次将减息。利率期货显示,市场预期美联储当前将减息50个基点的概率已达67%。有分析认为,如果美联储如期宣布减息,这将为香港房地产市场带来利好因素,有望提振买家入市需求,为未来楼价反弹奠定基础。
事实上,监管统计已显示本地楼市呈现回暖迹象。中原地产最新数据显示,上周末香港十大屋苑录得15宗成交,按周增长87.5%,创下今年3月底以来的新高水平。该机构称,市场预期联储局降息,吸引买家在降息前趁低吸纳楼盘,推高了最新的成交量。 消息人士指出,对于地产商而言,利率的下调将直接减轻其财务压力。大摩银行最新报告预计,明年1月香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)将降至2.75%,在最优惠利率(P)下调1.75%的条件下,实际按揭利率将降至3.25%。该行相信,对比零售及写字楼市场,香港的住宅市场将更受惠于美国减息,预计明年香港住宅楼价将反弹5%,而今年则会下跌8%,即较高位下跌三成。该行估计,香港银行同业拆息每下跌100个基点,可带动香港地产发展商的平均盈利增加5%。
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