Chinese ADRs & ETFs Rally As Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in a Decade

Tiger Newspress
06 Dec 2024

Chinese ADRs & ETFs rally as wall street banks predict biggest China rate cuts in a decade.

Alibaba and JD.com jumped over 2% and YINN jumped 5%.

China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street banks.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are among those projecting cuts of 40 basis points to the People’s Bank of China’s main policy rate in 2025. That would be the largest reduction in a calendar year since 2015, taking the seven-day reverse repo rate down to 1.1%. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s most recent survey was for 30 basis points of cuts.

While the scale is far short of what’s typical at central banks in most other major economies, the PBOC has reason to be wary. Lower rates would compress banks’ already record-low net interest margins — leaving them with less cushion for losses amid a continuing property slump. In any case, few analysts think that monetary policy alone has the power to stoke the economy at a time of subdued demand for credit.

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