11月8日,国泰君安国际股价大涨6.02%,引发市场广泛关注。涨势或与美国大选结果以及分析师对特朗普政策预期引发的美元走强有关。
据国君海外宏观研究团队分析,当选总统特朗普倡导的经济政策包括对内减税、加征关税、收紧移民政策、发展石化能源等,将从需求和供给两端推高通胀预期。与上任时期相比,新任期内特朗普的政策成本更高,这将加强市场对经济增长和通胀的预期。
分析师指出,尽管目前美联储处于降息环境,但在再通胀预期主导下,利率中枢抬升将主导近期市场交易方向。短期内,宽松货币政策环境不太可能显著制约美元延续强势格局。而美元强势或将带动与美元关联度较高的金融股上涨,推动国泰君安国际等公司股价大幅上扬。
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