4月10日周四盘中，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley，股票代码：MS）股价大跌5.01%，引发市场关注。这一跌势发生在高盛发布美国银行业深度研报之际，该报告对大型银行的下行风险进行了全面评估。
高盛的研报指出，自2025年2月峰值以来，大型银行股已累计下跌25%。报告分析了六大下行风险因素，包括收益率曲线趋平、资本市场收入疲软、交易收入下滑、信贷质量恶化、贷款增长放缓以及潜在的股票回购暂停。这些因素可能导致大型银行2026年每股收益(EPS)面临约45%的下行风险。
具体到摩根士丹利，研报预计其在资本市场收入疲软方面可能受到较大影响，EPS可能下降2%。然而，在信贷质量恶化的情景下，摩根士丹利受损失影响最小。值得注意的是，尽管银行股普遍面临压力，高盛仍认为摩根士丹利在当前估值水平下具有吸引力。这种矛盾的市场反应可能反映了投资者对银行业整体前景的担忧，以及对个别银行风险敞口的差异化评估。
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