Tesla (TSLA) stock appears to be moving higher as investors look past the disappointing first-quarter results and focus on Chief Executive Elon Musk sticking to a robotaxi rollout in June and his plan to scale back his work for President Donald Trump.
Tesla stock soared 6.5% to 276.60 during Friday's stock market action, reclaiming the 50-day moving average as it extended its post-earnings. The stock advanced 3.5% to 259.51 on Thursday as the general analyst consensus was positive coming out of the conference call late Tuesday.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote on April 23 that "more important than numbers" he was looking for Musk to calm shareholders coming out of a "disaster quarter."
"He did it loudly and clearly in a conference call that we view as a turning point in the Tesla story," Ives wrote.
Ives added that Musk's commitment to stepping back from his government work next month "was an off ramp for Musk out of the Trump White House."
"The brand damage caused by Musk in the White House/DOGE over the past few months will not go away just by this move and some of the damage will be stained forever in Europe and the U.S.," Ives said. "But this was the time to close one dark chapter and open a brighter one for the Tesla story with autonomous and robotics front and center."
With Tesla stock appearing to have bottomed on Mar. 11 and Q1 earnings out of the way, the top question for investors is: when is it a good time to buy or sell Tesla stock.
The EV giant on April 22 reported that Q1 EPS sank 40% to 27 cents per share while revenue fell 9% to $19.335 billion. Musk brand damage appeared to take a toll on sales and the refreshed Model Y began rolling out late in the quarter. Tesla pulled its target for delivery growth in 2025.
Meanwhile, auto gross margins excluding regulatory tax credits came in around 12.5%, marking the lowest auto gross margins since Q2 2012 when Tesla delivered 5,612 vehicles.
Operating income was $399 million. But excluding regulatory credits of $595 million, Tesla had an operating loss.
Tesla, in its earnings statement, said a "pilot" robotaxi launch will take place in Austin in June. The company added that output will start by midyear for an "affordable" EV, with executives later saying that the cheaper EV line will "resemble" the Model Y or 3. Several reports earlier stated that the first cheap EV would be a stripped-down Model Y.
Musk, on the earnings call, said he'll scale back his work starting in May for the Trump White House at the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE). However, he said he could still do government work a day or two a week.
The Tesla chief kicked off the Q1 earnings call discussing his work at DOGE for Trump.
"Starting next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly," Musk said. "Starting next month I will be allocating far more of my time to Tesla"
But he still expects to work a day or two a week on government work, as long as President Trump wants him, perhaps throughout Trump's term.
"There are some challenges, and I expect that this year will be, probably be some unexpected bumps this year, but I remain extremely optimistic about the future of the company. The future of the company is fundamentally based on large scale autonomous cars and large scale, large volume, vast numbers of autonomous human robots," Musk said during the April 22 call on the current state of Tesla.
"We expect to be selling fully autonomous rides in Austin in June," Musk says, regarding the robotaxi. "The team and I are laser focused on bringing robotaxi in Austin in June," Musk said. "Unsupervised autonomy will first be solved for the Model Y in Austin."
The Tesla EVs that will be autonomous in Austin in June will be Model Ys, according to Musk.
Separately, the CyberCab product is on track for production next year, according to Tesla.
"I feel confident predicting large scale autonomy around the middle of next year, certainly the second half of next year," Musk said. It is unclear what vehicles.
Meanwhile, at launch for the Model Y robotaxi in Austin, Musk said that they are still debating what it will look like but that that it will be "maybe 10-20" vehicles on day one.
Regarding the new affordable model, the Tesla exec team said the models that will come out in the coming months "will be built on our lines and will resemble, in form and shape, the cars we currently make, but the key is that they'll be affordable."
This suggests that there will not be a "new" vehicle line and that future cars will be similar to the current Model Y or Model 3 vehicles.
Multiple reports have stated that the first cheaper EV would essentially be a stripped-down Model Y.
Piper Sandler analysts wrote on April 23 that the "best-case scenario has materialized" from Tesla's Q1 report, with the financial results not being considered and all the attention going to the robotaxi rollout in June and the possibility for lower-priced vehicles coming this year.
The analysts believe investors "can look forward to some interesting catalysts in the weeks ahead" and that "this alone should be enough to keep the bears at bay." The firm reiterated an overweight rating on Tesla stock with a 400 price target.
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg also wrote on April 23 that "despite near-term road bumps," the long-term Tesla bull thesis remains intact coming out of the Q1 call.
Legg said that Tesla's current market outlook remains clouded as the industry navigates tariffs, but there is long-term upside with cheaper models coming, the launch of the robotaxi business in June, and the continued development of Optimus robots. Benchmark has a buy rating on TSLA with a 350 price target.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also noted that analyst consensus views on full-year earnings "will likely continue to be revised down following the earnings miss."
"However, the quantum of the miss was largely within low buy-side expectations," Jonas wrote.
CFRA autos analyst Garrett Nelson added that TSLA shares "traded slightly higher after hours, which we think reflects better-than-expected gross margins and the fact its product timeline remains unchanged."
A day before Tesla announced first-quarter earnings, analyst consensus was for the EV giant to see about 7% profit growth in 2025, even with disastrous Q1 vehicle deliveries already reported amid apparent "brand damage" associated with Musk's close work with the Trump White House.
That all changed late on April 22 after Tesla announced first-quarter earnings. While the stock market generally cheered Musk and the Tesla team for their performance on the Q1 earnings call, analysts hastily began slashing full-year earnings expectations late Tuesday and Wednesday.
The day before Tesla earnings, the consensus view was for 2025 EPS to grow 6.6% to $2.58. As of early Thursday, the consensus projection has dropped 15% to $2.20, according to FactSet. Analyst consensus is also down 28% since Q4 earnings.
The current expectation would mark a 9% decline vs. the originally reported $2.42 in 2024. If this view holds true, it would be Tesla's third consecutive annual profit decline. Analysts surmise the profit decrease could be due to general economic difficulties for the auto industry, brand damage associated with Musk's work with President Donald Trump and the decision by Tesla to release its "new affordable" vehicles as scaled-down cheaper versions of the Model Y and/or Model 3.
The move to not come out with a new model line could mean customers do not buy the more expensive Model Y or Model 3 variants and simply purchase the cheaper variants.
Meanwhile, Tesla also revised lower its Q4 2024 earnings to 60 cents per share, down 13 cents from the originally reported 73 cents per share, without an explanation. The lower Q4 EPS means 2024 earnings came in at $2.29 per share.
Using that number, the current 2025 EPS analyst consensus represents a 4% decrease.
In Q4, Tesla's net income was boosted by a recent change in how companies account for holdings of digital currencies. This policy change resulted in a net income increase of $600 million.
For Q1, Tesla reported its net income changed unfavorably by $562 million due to a $125 million mark-to-market loss on its bitcoin digital assets, according to the company's 10Q federal filing.
The EV giant is widely considered by analysts to be the least affected by Trump's auto tariffs, due to its existing U.S. manufacturing and supply chains.
On tariffs, Musk said during the Q1 earnings call that Tesla seems to be the "least affected car company."
However, he added that "tariffs are still tough on a company when margins are still low."
On supply chains, the Tesla team said on April 22 that its "high volume" North American vehicles have more than 85% North America components, excluding the battery, and that its Shanghai vehicles have more than 95% local content. However, the company is not "100%" insulated from tariffs.
The Tesla brand is also becoming increasingly political as countries look to retaliate against the U.S. and Trump.
Canada late recently froze $43 million in what it termed "suspicious" EV rebates for Tesla. It also excluded the U.S. EV giant from the country's future EV rebates, explicitly as retaliation for Trump tariffs.
The United Kingdom appears to be considering something similar. U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves talking to British broadcasters on Thursday said "we are looking at the zero emission vehicle mandate which is why some of ... that money goes to Tesla, and looking at how we can better support the car manufacturing industry in the U.K."
Tesla recently warned that it could be singled out by other countries in a Trump trade war.
"Past U.S. special tariff actions have thus increased costs to Tesla for vehicles manufactured in the United States, and increased costs for those same vehicles when exported from the United States, resulting in less competitive international marketplace for U.S. manufacturers," the company wrote.
A recent YouGov and Yahoo News survey of 1,677 U.S. adults between March 20-24 showed that 67% of respondents would not consider buying or leasing a Tesla vehicle. Thirty-seven percent of those polled Elon Musk was the "whole/part of the reason why."
Meanwhile, a CNBC All-America Economic survey, released on April 22, found that more than than 47% of the U.S. public have a negative view of Tesla. CNBC reported that about 27% are positive on Tesla, while 24% are neutral.
About a third of the public have a positive view of General Motors (GM) with 51% neutral and 10% negative.
Specifically regarding Musk, Half of those surveyed view Musk negatively. About 36% see him positively and 16% are neutral. Among Democrats, Musk's net approval (positive minus negative) is -82 and -49 for independents. GOP respondents are +56, according to the CNBC All-America Economic survey.
The survey polled 1,000 people from April 9 through April 13.
The company faces similar brand destruction in Europe, where Musk has weighed in on the Ukraine war, German elections and much more.
Tesla announced late on Jan. 29 worse-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, with Q4 EPS of 73 cents, growing 3% compared to Q4 2023, and revenue increasing 2% to $25.71 billion. After a surprise gain in Q3, Tesla's total gross margins fell 138 basis points to 16.3%. Auto gross margins excluding regulatory tax credits tumbled to 13.6% vs. 15.7% expected, per FactSet.
"I think we will make progress on addressing that constraint and then things are really going to go ballistic next year and then really ballistic in 2027 and 2028," Musk said.
"The reality of autonomy is upon us," Musk added, touting the outlook for the value add of FSD.
Arguably the biggest announcement the earnings call was that unsupervised full self-driving will come as a paid service to Austin, Texas, in June. Musk added there will be robotaxi tests in many U.S. cities by year end.
The Tesla head was also bullish on Optimus, projecting the company could be selling units sometime in the first half of 2026.
"Long term, Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company," Musk said.
Musk on Mar. 2o claimed the company will produce around 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026. Optimus sales will roll out in the second half of 2026, according to Musk.
Musk has conceded that Tesla EVs with Hardware 3.0 might not be able to achieve true self-driving.
Musk set sky-high expectations for the "We Robot" event. But after showing off a CyberCab and Robovan late on Oct. 10 2024, the market seemed unimpressed with Musk as he once more claimed full autonomous driving will come "next year" but did not offer any details or updates of an "affordable" EV.
The event was high on theatrics with Musk riding the two-seat CyberCab, with butterfly doors and no steering wheel, briefly to the stage to give his remarks. Dancing Optimus robots were paraded out with the Tesla humanoids serving attendees drinks. However, the consensus among analysts was that while the event was high on pomp and circumstance, it underdelivered on details.
Musk did say he expects the CyberCab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting "before 2027." The Tesla chief also showed off the latest Optimus robot. He expects that the cost could be $25,000-$30,000 when produced at scale.
"That's it? Disappointing lack of detail," Morgan Stanley's Jonas proclaimed in his investor note following the event. Wells Fargo analysts echoed that sentiment, writing that Tesla's robotaxi event was mostly "razzle-dazzle" with "little substance."
Tesla stock sold off hard the day following the robotaxi event, sending a sell signal to investors. However, Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest ignored that and purchased nearly $3 million in TSLA shares.
Wood, who has long been super-bullish on Tesla's autonomy push and robotaxi aims, attended Tesla's robotaxi event on Thursday. On June 12, Ark Invest updated its Tesla stock price target to 2,600 by 2029, estimating that around 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029.
Wood's Ark Invest tends to purchase Tesla stock and other positions amid sell-offs or when they break below key moving averages. Without a robotaxi network and business, Ark Invest says its TSLA price target would be around $350 per share, according to the report.
"We remain confident that the service will launch within the next five years," Ark Invest said.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced in January it opened an investigation into Tesla, citing "Actually Smart Summon sessions resulting in crashes during the session, including where the operator does not have enough time to react due to vehicle proximity or line of sight."
Federal regulators wrote they have received one complaint alleging that an Actually Smart Summon session resulted in a crash and has reviewed at least three media reports of apparently similar crashes. All four incidents involve Tesla vehicles operating in Actually Smart Summon failing to detect posts or parked vehicles, resulting in a crash, according to NHTSA.
The company announced on Mar. 20 the recall of 46,096 Cybertruck vehicles to fix an exterior panel that could detach while driving, according to U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Tesla sold 38,965 Cybertrucks in 2024, according to Cox Automotive estimates.
The Tesla Cybertruck is now eligible for the $7,500 IRA tax credit, which could boost demand, at least to start 2025.
Almost single-handedly, Elon Musk has turned the auto industry on its head. He has essentially forced it to get aboard the electric-vehicle train. Tesla has been a monster stock over much of its history, especially during its stratospheric run from mid-2019 to late 2021.
However, Tesla stock is currently down about 46% from its 488.54 peak on Dec. 18. Prior to Q1 earnings, TSLA shares were trading back near their March low of 214.25 but have moved higher since then. Still, Tesla stock remains down 38% so far in 2025 as of April 24, one of the worst S&P 500 performers in 2025 stock market action.
TSLA shares jumped 5.3% on April 23 despite grim Q1 earnings as Musk still sees a robotaxi launch in June. Meanwhile, other Magnificent Seven stocks had solid to strong gains as well. However, Tesla stock, and the other megacaps remain in downtrends, below its 200-day moving average.
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