10月15日,港股中国飞鹤(06186)盘中一度大跌近10%,最终收盘报5.54港元,下跌7.97%。母婴龙头股大跌引发市场关注。
近年来,中国人口出生率持续走低,给母婴及婴幼儿奶粉等相关行业带来了严峻挑战。国家统计局数据显示,中国出生率从2018年的1.094%下降到2023年的0.639%,新生儿数量下降到约900万。随着婴幼儿人口减少,奶粉等母婴相关品类的市场需求也出现了明显下滑。市场研究机构尼尔森去年发布的报告预计,2023年我国婴幼儿配方奶粉全渠道销售额同比下降13.7%。
在低出生率及行业需求疲软的大环境下,国内母婴企业业绩承压。虽然中国飞鹤上半年实现营收和净利增长,但增长动力面临考验。公司表示,未来几年受三胎政策放开影响,新生儿数量下降有望放缓,但高端奶粉产品需求将成为行业增长主要推动力。对于行业发展前景,市场存在不确定性,也可能加剧了投资者对飞鹤等相关股票的担忧情绪,从而引发股价大幅下跌。
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