周四盘中，摩根大通（JPM）股价大跌5%，引发市场关注。这一跌势反映了投资者对美国经济前景和银行业表现的担忧。
据悉，摩根大通近期发布的研究报告指出，尽管美国政府宣布对部分国家实施90天的关税暂停措施，但整体有效关税率仍处于极高水平，对美国经济构成显著威胁。该行维持美国/全球经济衰退概率为60%的判断，预测美国经济可能在2025年下半年经历一场"浅而短暂"的衰退。这一预测无疑加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧，从而影响了投资者对银行股的信心。
此外，市场对美联储未来利率政策走向的不确定性也可能是导致股价下跌的因素之一。摩根大通已将其预测的首次降息时间从6月推迟至9月，而花旗则认为美联储可能在5月或6月开始降息。这种分歧反映了当前经济环境的复杂性，也增加了投资者的观望情绪。值得注意的是，摩根大通将于本周五发布第一季度财报，这可能是投资者在财报公布前调整持仓的原因之一，进一步加剧了股价的波动。
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