JetBlue’s Stock Tumbles as Revenue Outlook Disappoints, and as Fuel Costs Are Rising

Dow Jones
28 Jan

JetBlue Airways Corp.’s stock dropped in early trading on Tuesday, pulling back from an 18-month high, as investors focused on the air carrier’s weaker-than-expected guidance for a key revenue metric rather than upbeat fourth-quarter results.

For the first quarter, JetBlue said it expects revenue per available seat mile to be down 0.5% decline to up 3.5%, compared with the prior year’s quarter. That range is below the estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet, who are looking for first-quarter revenue per available seat kilometer to increase 4.85%.

The company also expects the average fuel price per gallon to increase to a range of between $2.65 and $2.80 in the first quarter from $2.47 in the fourth quarter.

The stock fell 21.2% in morning trading after closing Monday at its highest price since July 24, 2023.

Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter to Dec. 31, net losses narrowed to $44 million, or 13 cents a share, from $104 million, or 31 cents a share, in the prior year’s quarter.

On an adjusted basis, JetBlue’s fourth-quarter loss widened to 21 cents a share from 19 cents a share, but beat the FactSet per-share loss consensus of 29 cents.

Revenue was $2.277 billion, down 2.1% compared with the prior year’s quarter, but just above the FactSet consensus of $2.257 billion.

JetBlue had raised its fourth-quarter guidance last month amid better-than-expected travel demand in November and December.

Passenger revenue was $2.1 billion, down 3.1% from the prior year’s quarter, but just above the FactSet consensus of $2.083 billion.

Operating expenses fell 5.5% to $2.26 billion.

Load factor improved to 82.2% from 80.1% in the same period last year.

For the first quarter, JetBlue expects available seat miles to be down 5% to 2% year over year.

For fiscal year 2025, available seat miles are expected to be flat and operating revenue per available seat mile is expected to increase between 3% and 6%.

In a note, TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald wrote that JetBlue’s first-quarter guidance was mainly in line except for revenue per available seat mile. “We suspect this is why the shares are trading down in the pre-market,” he wrote. “This seems more an issue of the sell-side (ourselves included) not fully incorporating the impact of the Easter shift in our models vs underperformance by the company.”

“However, net leverage and the relative margin gap between JetBlue and some industry leaders also likely factors,” the analyst added.

In a statement, JetBlue Chief Executive Joanna Geraghty pointed to the company’s JetForward strategy, which was introduced last year with the goal of returning the company to profitability.

“While this year will not come without its challenges, our strategy is in place to tackle those obstacles head-on,” Geraghty said. “With a healthy revenue backdrop, continued cost control and incremental earnings from JetForward, we believe we are well-positioned to deliver on our goal of achieving a positive operating margin for the full year.”

JetBlue’s stock has risen 46.3% in the last 12 months, while the U.S. Global exchange-traded fund has gained 38.5% and the S&P 500 index has risen 22.9%.

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